Dutch geothermal expansion threatened by grid overload and nitrogen limits, TNO reports

The Netherlands is unlikely to achieve its national target for geothermal energy production by 2050 because of major challenges with the power grid, nitrogen emissions restrictions and uncertain subsidies, according to a new report from research institute TNO.

The Dutch government has set a goal to generate at least 80 petajoules of geothermal energy annually by mid-century, an amount sufficient to heat about 1.6 million households. Geothermal energy involves pumping hot water from deep underground layers to the surface through drilling installations.

TNO stated that it remains unclear whether enough of these drilling installations will be constructed to meet that long-term target. “The field is facing significant uncertainties,” the report concluded, citing the overloaded electricity network, nitrogen emissions limitations on new construction, and the question of whether green subsidies will continue. The investments required for geothermal facilities are substantial, and transporting the extracted heat to residential areas remains technically complex.

Despite the long-term concerns, researchers expressed optimism about the near-term objective. The Netherlands plans to reach 15 petajoules of geothermal energy production by 2030, a goal TNO believes is likely to be met.

The report also highlighted that geothermal production increased sharply last year. The 23 operational installations produced almost 7.5 petajoules of heat in 2023, marking a 10 percent rise compared to the previous year. Part of that increase occurred because many installations had been offline for maintenance in 2022. Three new drilling installations were added in 2023, although their contribution to total production remained limited.