European elections: Tonight's final results will show if Europe shifts to the right

The majority of the roughly 360 million voters in the European Union can cast their votes for a new European Parliament on Sunday. Pollsters expect a move to the right, as has already happened in the Netherlands with the recent resounding election results of the PVV. For several political parties, today's votes will mean a few more hours of nail-biting, waiting for the provisional results of the European elections.

On Thursday evening, 31 of the 720 seats in the European Parliament that are available for the Netherlands were distributed based on the exit poll by Ipsos I&O/NOS. The seat distribution that will be announced on Sunday at 11 p.m. is an ANP forecast based on the counted votes that municipalities have sent to the ANP Elections Service. This count can be favorable or unfavorable for a few parties.

The exit poll indicates the election result with a margin of error of 1 seat. As a result, the parties may receive 1 seat more or 1 seat less, in exceptional cases even 2 seats. This applies to all parties.

Therefore, the Christian Union still has some hope of remaining in the European Parliament with one seat after all. According to the exit poll results, the CU will disappear from the European Parliament. PVV leader Geert Wilders is also hoping for an additional seat, as he said on Friday. His party would then have 8 seats, which would correspond to the size of the GroenLinks-PvdA. However, the left-wing party, which is the largest party according to the polls, could also win or lose another seat.

Nevertheless, like-minded members of Geert Wilders' party have been gaining ground for months in key EU countries such as France, Germany, and Italy. They represent a considerable proportion of the 720 MEPs in the new European Parliament. Sunday's European result will not only determine what the European Parliament will look like but will also be the starting point for the distribution of key positions in Europe, such as the Presidency of the European Commission, the European Council, and the post of EU Foreign Minister.

According to the pollsters, however, these will remain in the hands of center-right parties such as the EPP of current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The EPP is likely to become by far the largest political "family" again, closely followed by the social democratic S&D. Radical right-wing parties such as that of Wilders' French ally Marine Le Pen are making significant gains but will not come close.

The provisional result may not be announced until 11 p.m., as polling stations are closed in all European Union member states at this time. An earlier announcement of the result could influence the election in other countries.

There is also tension in other EU countries on Sunday when most people go to the polls. The European Parliament will publish an initial forecast of the composition of the new parliament at around 8:15 p.m. on Sunday, based on estimates from EU member states. After the polling stations close, the first provisional results for the EU countries that have already counted the votes and estimates for the other Member States will be available from 11:15 p.m. to 11:30 p.m. The final update is expected around 1 a.m.

"The polls are fairly stable, especially at European level," says Tobias Schminke of Europe Elects, which calculates national polls into a European forecast. The tension lies behind the two traditional power parties in the middle, in the battle for third place. The Liberals and Greens, who have generally helped the EPP and S&D gain a majority over the past five years, are at a loss. However, the two radical right factions could surpass them both.

"But the real change will not come from the voters, but from the reorganization of the European party families," believes Schminke. Radical right-wing leaders like Wilders dream of a large new parliamentary group that could exert real influence in the European Parliament. Von der Leyen has already hinted that she might want to work with such a new group. This would at least make it easier for her EPP to steer to the right in the coming legislative period instead of mainly to the left.