Home prices down 0.5% in October; Housing market not yet facing 2008 collapse

Existing owner-occupied home prices in the Netherlands decreased by 0.5 percent in October compared to September. That is the third consecutive month-to-month decrease, Statistics Netherlands reported. While the housing market does seem to be cooling, it is far from the 2008 to 2013 collapse, appraisal agency Calcasa told De Telegraaf after calculating what would happen if the previous crash were repeated exactly.

The average home cost 428,079 euros in October. That was still 7.8 percent higher than in October 2021. However, the annual price increases are also leveling off. In September, homes were 9.4 percent more expensive than a year before. And that is already much lower than the 21.1 percent price increase in January.

The Land Registry registered 14,863 homes transferring ownership in October, over 8 percent less than a year earlier. In the first ten months of this year, 156,521 homes were sold, over 17 percent less than in the same period last year.

In the previous housing market crash between 2008 and 2013, home prices fell by an average of 17 percent. According to Calcassa, if that were to happen again now, the average equity value would fall by 70,000 euros. But most homeowners will be able to absorb that fall in prices.

The agency calculated that the average equity value now is 175,000 euros. “That indicates that a large part of the housing market has enough fat on its bones for the time being to be able to handle any further price falls,” the researchers said. The highest equity values are in the municipalities with many million-euro properties, like Aerdenhout (634,000 euros) and Bleomendaal (515,000). Kerkrade is at the bottom of the list (85,000), followed by Sittard (106,000).