First Dutch provinces to turn orange on European coronavirus map

The number of coronavirus cases in the Netherlands continues to fall, and this will also be visible on the European coronavirus map next week. Four provinces will most likely be colored orange, the second lowest level, and two other provinces may be added to that group. The last time parts of the Netherlands were at such a low warning color was about a month ago.

The coronavirus map is produced every Thursday by the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. The organization looks at the number of positive tests during the past two calendar weeks, and the percentage of tests conducted which resulted in a positive diagnosis of the SARS-CoV-2 infection. The map has four colors: green, orange, red and dark red.

All twelve provinces are currently at red, the second highest level. Gelderland, Groningen, Limburger, Noord-Brabant, Noord-Holland, Overijssel, Utrecht, and Zuid-Holland went from dark red to red last Thursday.

The provinces of Drenthe, Friesland, Groningen and Zeeland have so few new coronavirus cases that they will almost certainly fall to orange next week. Gelderland and Utrecht are still just above the threshold; Thursday's map update may come just a little too early for them. Flevoland, Limburg, Noord-Brabant, Noord-Holland, Overijssel and Zuid-Holland will almost certainly remain in the red.

Flevoland is currently the largest hotspot in the country. The number of coronavirus cases is decreasing, but not as fast as in other provinces. In Flevoland, 1,297 people have tested positive in the past two weeks, including more than 800 people from Almere. That is 307 positive tests for every 100,000 inhabitants.

Noord-Holland registered 8,582 new cases in the same period, which amounts to 298 per 100,000. Limburg counted 289 positive tests for every 100,000 people. Zuid-Holland counted 286 infected residents per 100,000.

Dutch government risk analysis update on Wednesday

On Wednesday, the Dutch government will publish a new domestic analysis as a map of the risk levels for the country’s 25 security regions. The Netherlands has four of those levels. From lowest to highest, these are, “Caution”, “Concern”, “Serious” and “Severe”.

The status of a region is determined based on the number of positive tests and the number of hospital admissions in the past week. The higher of the two is the deciding factor. Currently, two regions are classified as Concern, nine as Serious and fourteen as Severe.

Based purely on the number of positive tests in the past week, twelve regions will be Concern. These are Groningen, Friesland, Drenthe, IJsselland, Noord en Oost Gelderland, Gelderland-Midden, Gelderland-Zuid, Utrecht, Noord-Holland Noord, Gooi en Vechtstreek, Zeeland and Midden en West Brabant. The thirteen other regions will then be placed at “Serious.”

The number of hospital admissions is the reason why fourteen regions were at the highest risk level last Wednesday. The situation would not have been considered Severe anywhere if the decision was based solely on positive coronavirus tests.