Dutch coronavirus reproduction level reaches worst point since Feb. 2020

For the first time since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, people in the Netherlands infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus were likely infecting at least two other people. The basic reproduction (R) number has swelled to an estimated 2.17, said Aura Timen of the RIVM. That estimate suggests 100 contagious people infect 217 others, who can in turn give the infection to 471 more individuals.

The new R-number is an estimate for June 30. It has only been higher on February 24, 2020 when the RIVM model put that number at an estimated 2.18, according to the Ministry of Health’s Coronavirus Dashboard. 

The Cabinet released most coronavirus restrictions in the Netherlands on June 26 despite warnings about the highly contagious Delta variant already being present in the country. On June 26 the R-number was modeled to be at about 1.37.

The average number of coronavirus infections revealed daily by the RIVM has risen by 10-fold between June 30 and July 12, when it reached 6,667. Hospitalizations for Covid-19 have shown a slight increase over the past few days, and patient coordination office LCPS warned that more are possible this week particularly if the infection was spread to people not yet fully vaccinated against the disease.

The latest data about the R-number was revealed by Aura Timen during a technical briefing in Parliament about the state of the pandemic in the Netherlands. Timen is the head of the Center for National Coordination of Infectious Disease Control at the RIVM.

She said that the current R-number is of 2.17 includes infections of all variants, including the Alpha variant which was most common in the Netherlands between January and June. The Delta variant is far more contagious, research has shown.

The reproduction of the Delta variant in the Netherlands was factored at 2.52, Timen said. That means that 100 contagious people infect 252 others, who can then spread it to another 635 people when unchecked.