ABN Amro: Soft Brexit to cost NL €4.5 billion; Hard Brexit hit equals €17.5 billion
If the European Union and United Kingdom part ways with a trade agreement in place, it will be a 4.5 billion euros blow to the Dutch economy. If there is a hard, no-deal Brexit, the Dutch economy will sustain 17.5 billion euros in damage, according to ABN Amro.
A soft Brexit, with a trade agreement, will also put 17,770 jobs at risk, compared to the 2019 labor market, ABN Amro expects. With a soft Brexit, the economic damage comes from additional trade barriers. There will be border controls, extra paperwork, and delays at customs as they get used to the new situation.
According to the bank, this could also have repercussions on demand in the coming years, because costs will increase. Exporters of machinery, chemical products and food, among others, will particularly be affected because they do a lot of business with the UK.
A hard Brexit will have even bigger consequences, because in addition to to extra trade barriers, there will also be import tariffs. A no-deal Brexit also puts nearly 70 thousand jobs at risk.
"Dutch companies in various sectors therefore have a lot to gain from a successful outcome of the Brexit negotiations," ABN Amro said.