New "Politician of the Year" fight Wilders for Dutch nationalist vote

The last Peilingwijzer of the year shows that Geert Wilders and his anti-Islam PVV is facing increasing competition from new nationalist party FvD led by Thierry Baudet. The FvD leader was also named politician of the year by EenVandaag on Tuesday. 

The FvD currently stands at between 12 and 16 seats in the polls, a massive gain compared to the two parliamentary seats the party has. The PVV fell from its current 20 seats to between 15 and 19 seats. Political scientist and Peilingwijzer compiler Tom Louwerse points out to NOS the contrast to the polls of exactly a year ago. Around Christmas 2016, in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, the polls showed Wilders' party at between 31 and 37 seats. 

Baudet was also voted politician of the year in EenVandaag's election on Tuesday. The FvD leader got 39 percent of the around 45 thousand votes that were cast. The voters found it great that Baudet came out of nowhere and ended up with two parliamentary seats in the election in March. They also call it admirable that his party continues to rise in the polls, and praised Baudet for his "verbal strength, fresh appearance and new sound", according to EenVandaag. 

VVD parliamentary faction leader Klaas Dijkhoff came in second place with 18 percent of the votes, and GroenLinks leader Jesse Klaver came in third with 14 percent. 

Peilingwijzer combines the data of polls by I&O Research, Ipsos, Kantar Public,, EenVandaag and the Liss panel to get a more comprehensive look at what voters are thinking.

Research by Maurice de Hond shows that less than 60 percent of people who voted for the PVV or CDA in the parliamentary election, will vote for these parties again. On average, 65 percent of voters stay loyal to their party. 

Right-wing voters who want to vote for a different party in the next elections, mainly opt for FvD. On the left-wing side, the first choice is PvdA. The labour party now stands at between 12 and 15 seats in the polls, compared to 9 parliamentary seats the PvdA currently has. 

Despite a drop in the polls, the VVD is still the largest party in the Netherlands. Prime Minister Mark Rutte's party stands at between 24 and 28 seats in the polls, compared to the VVD's current 33 parliamentary seats. The only coalition party not to drop in the polls, is ChristenUnie, with between 5 and 7 seats. The polls has the CDA at between 13 and 15 seats and the D66 at between 16 and 18 seats. Both parties have 19 seats in parliament.