Netherlands on track to build nearly 100,000 new homes in 2027, surge seen as temporary
The Netherlands is on track to add nearly 100,000 new homes in 2027, according to research commissioned by the Ministry of Housing. However, analysts warn the construction surge will likely be temporary and slow again after that year.
Research firm ABF Research estimates 99,700 new homes will be completed in 2027, bringing the country close to the government’s long-standing target of 100,000 annual additions. For 2026, the projection stands at about 91,000 new homes. The estimates also include roughly 10,000 demolitions per year.
The outlook is based on a sharp increase in building permits issued since October 2023. ABF notes it typically takes about 27 months between permit approval and completion, meaning recent approvals are expected to translate into higher output next year and in 2027.
Housing Minister Elanor Boekholt-O’Sullivan of D66 welcomed the projections, saying: “It is now about following through. Everyone knows the final meters are the hardest. That is why we must put everything into making these numbers a reality as quickly as possible.”
The ministry-backed study also incorporates housing gains from apartment subdivision and office-to-residential conversions, which are not always included in Statistics Netherlands’ figures, resulting in higher totals than official new-build-only counts.
Despite the short-term increase, ABF expects momentum to weaken after 2027. The decline is linked to a drop in issued building permits since 2025 and rising interest rates, which are reducing investment capacity in the housing market.
Earlier expectations have been revised upward compared with last year’s report, largely because a proposed rent freeze was scrapped. Researchers say the policy reversal means housing corporations are likely to retain more capital for new construction projects.
However, ABF cautions that structural barriers remain. Issues such as nitrogen regulations, grid congestion and zoning restrictions near goat farms are currently assessed as only a “limited” obstacle to construction, though researchers add: “This assumption may be overly optimistic.”
Even with the projected growth, the housing shortage remains severe. The deficit is expected to decline slightly from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, largely because population growth has been weaker than anticipated. In total, the Netherlands still faces a shortfall of about 384,000 homes.
To reach the government’s target vacancy rate of 2%, an additional 213,000 homes would need to be built immediately. Current projections suggest that level will not be achieved until 2041.
