First exit poll shows potential big changes ahead for The Hague City Council

Political party Hart voor Den Haag appeared to be the decisive winner of the City Council election in The Hague on Wednesday, with the local right-wing party expected to pull about a third of all votes cast in the city. Turnout in the country's third-largest city was approximately 46 percent, the city said.

Hart voor Den Haag party leader Richard de Mos spent the day campaigning in his party's green and yellow colors, with a hat reading, "Make The Hague Great Again," a nod to U.S. President Donald Trump's prior campaigns. Often seen as ethically questionable due to the years-long criminal case against him on corruption and patronage charges, De Mos said he wants to move forward "with all parties willing to get to work," and to set a more unifying tone at City Hall.

"Such support leaves one speechless," said De Mos after the exit poll projected his party to be the largest for the third consecutive election. There are 45 seats on the City Council up for grabs, and De Mos led his faction to an estimated 17 seats in total. That would nearly double their total, according to the Ipsos I&O exit poll commissioned by NOS. The exit poll has a margin of error equivalent to up to two seats.

It will still be a narrow race to determine the second-largest party. Left-wing faction GroenLinks-PvdA and the centrist D66 both were sitting on eight seats, the same as their current total, while right-wing VVD appeared to lose more than half of their base in The Hague, falling from seven seats down to three.

The VVD was almost certainly the party expected to suffer the greatest losses in the city. Both the right-wing Christian Democrats (CDA) and left-wing animal rights faction PvdD were likely to lose one of their three seats. Denk was likely to hold two spots.

Left-center European party Volt was projected to win its first seat on the Council. Three parties with one seat were likely to fall out of the Council, including far-right PVV, the Haagse Stadspartij, and fused Christian party ChristenUnie-SGP. The extreme-right FVD held its seat, according to the exit poll, as did the far-left Socialist Party.

Once the ballots are counted and re-counted, a process expected to continue into Thursday, the question will shift to whether a coalition can easily be formed to secure a Council majority. Once that happens, those parties will be able to put forward their representatives to sit as the coalition of aldermen working with Mayor Jan van Zanen to drive political decisions.

Hart voor Den Haag could potentially form a coalition with D66, or with the VVD and CDA, depending on the final vote totals. However it remains to be seen which parties will be willing to work with De Mos.

Last summer, De Mos was acquitted by an appeals court on charges of official corruption, bribery, and violating his duty to maintain secret documents. He was convicted by that court only on charges that he shared confidential information with others who stood to benefit from the early access. De Mos only faced a suspended sentence of 2,000 euros in the case, which has dragged on for several years.

Prosecutors decided against appealing the case to the country's Supreme Court. They had demanded a four-year ban from public office, as well as a prison term of six months, 240 hours of community service, and a fine of 10,000 euros. There were six co-defendants, include De Mos party colleague Rachid Guernaoui. He was also convicted of violating his duty to confidential information, but was not punished for this by the court. The other five, all entrepreneurs in the city, were acquitted of bribing the politicians.

De Mos and Guernaoui were accused of accepting gifts from the men, including boating trips, dinners, and party donations. The Court of Appeal in The Hague said prosecutors did not prove that the politicians viewed the gifts as bribes meant to curry favor, nor that the entrepreneurs were trying to bribe the pair, who were aldermen in the city at the time. Police raided the politicians' offices six years ago, but the aldermen were steadfast in maintaining their innocence.

In any case, turnout in The Hague was higher than four years ago. An estimated 46 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot in The Hague. That was up from 43 percent in 2022, when the coronavirus pandemic prompted the election to be spread out over three days. Prior to that, turnout in The Hague sat at 48 percent in 2018.