Quantum computers could break Dutch encryption by 2030, Court of Audit warns

Quantum computers could pose a major threat to society in just a few years, yet the government is still doing far too little to protect itself, the Dutch Court of Audit noted on Wednesday.

Unlike traditional computers, which rely on bits made up of zeros and ones, quantum computers use qubits that can exist as both 0 and 1 simultaneously. This allows them to carry out numerous calculations at once, making them exponentially faster and more powerful than today’s fastest machines. Tasks that would take current computers millions of years can be completed by quantum computers in mere minutes.

The pace of quantum technology development remains uncertain, with many countries keeping details secret. The Dutch Court of Audit warns that by 2030, quantum computers may be capable of breaking current encryption systems.

Such a scenario could allow criminals to access confidential citizen and business data, manipulate infrastructure like bridges and dikes, or disable DigiD logins. “Sensitive information could be exposed, traffic disrupted, or access gates fail, posing a real risk of societal disruption,” the Court of Audit stated.

To guard against quantum threats, new encryption that quantum computers cannot break is essential. The Dutch Court of Audit reviewed 63 national government organizations and found that 45 have not yet begun preparations. Many have not even consulted their software providers. The agencies cite a lack of expertise and say that other risks are being prioritized for the time being.

Quantum technology presents significant opportunities, allowing companies to create new services and generate income. In 2021, the government set aside 615 million euros to support Dutch quantum technology. The Dutch Court of Audit notes, however, that many initiatives are still in the early stages, and turning them into market-ready applications remains a major challenge.