Latest exit poll: D66, PVV on equal footing; Both 26 seats with 97.7% of votes counted

With almost all votes counted, D66 and the PVV are tied in a new preliminary forecast from the ANP Election Service. After 97.7 percent of the votes were counted, the two parties that won the most votes in the national elections both hold 26 seats. By the end of Wednesday night, the difference in votes was only 2,300 in the D66’s favor. The turnout now stands at 78.4 percent, slightly higher than in 2023.

Rob Jetten’s party initially looked set to win 27 seats, but lost one in the preliminary forecast after more municipalities submitted their results. Geert Wilders’s PVV initially expected 25 seats, but gained one.

Several municipalities had not yet submitted their results to the ANP Election Service. Results from Venray are still pending due to a fire at the town hall. The PVV always scores well in this Limburg town. Helmond, Epe, Sint-Michielsgestel, and Oude IJsselstreek are also still pending. The PVV won many votes in Helmond and Epe in previous elections.

ANP is also still waiting for 20 percent of the counted votes from Amsterdam, which will be submitted by Friday. This could yield thousands more votes for D66.

The ANP Election Service will also receive results from voters on Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba, and from postal voters abroad in the coming days. Traditionally, the PVV does not perform well among these voting groups, while the D66 does. This involves tens of thousands of votes.

Slightly more people voted in Wednesday’s parliamentary elections than in the previous elections in 2023. On Wednesday evening, it seemed that the turnout would be slightly lower, but the latest figures from the ANP Election Service on Thursday morning showed a turnout of 78.4 percent. Last time, 77.8 percent of all eligible voters cast their ballots.

Turnout in parliamentary elections has fluctuated considerably in recent decades. The largest peak in recent history was in 2017, when 81.9 percent cast their ballots. A low point was in 1998, when more than a quarter of voters abstained from voting that year: turnout then reached 73.3 percent.

Of all provinces, turnout this year was highest in Utrecht (82.2 percent) and lowest in Flevoland (73.8 percent).