Dutch election results could be telling for EU's political future, Commission believes
The European Commission closely monitors elections in all member states, but the Dutch elections are under extra scrutiny, people involved told NOS. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen already received a report with an initial analysis of the interim results a day after the Netherlands went to the polls in the parliamentary election. People involved told the Telegraaf that Brussels is relieved that Rob Jetten’s D66, and not Geert Wilders’ PVV, is coming out on top.
The Netherlands is considered the canary in the coal mine - the first sign that something is wrong - when it comes to the rise of far-right parties. Wilders was the first radical-right leader to win a resounding victory in Europe in the 2023 elections. The swing back to the progressive, social liberal D66 may be a sign that European politics is correcting course back to a more moderate center.
Part of the analysis on Von der Leyen’s table is an assessment of what course the new Dutch government is expected to take in the coming years. The next Dutch coalition is expected to include the D66, VVD, and CDA - three pro-European parties. But a lot depends on whether the fourth party will be left-wing GroenLinks-PvdA or right-wing JA21.
GroenLinks-PvdA is open to joint defense investments, a European migration policy, and European enlargement. JA21 is mainly known in Europe for opposing joint European loans. In March, JA21 leader Joost Eerdmans passed a motion instructing the government not to agree to a plan to use borrowed money to help EU countries finance defense investments.
But whichever form this new government takes, those involved told NOS that the Commission is hoping for a stable Cabinet led by a Prime Minister with a political affiliation. Non-partisan Prime Minister Dick Schoof struggled to make headway in Brussels, and that is part of the reason that the Netherlands’ reputation suffered in the bloc under the current Cabinet.
Before EU summits, all political families organize “pre-summits” where various leaders of EU countries coordinate their most important ideas. When Mark Rutte (VVD) was Prime Minister, he talked strategy with French President Emmanuel Macron, for example. But because Prime Minister Schoof is not a member of a political party, he never received an invitation to these meetings.
According to the Telegraaf, the Commission is looking forward to dealing with Prime Minister Rob Jetten. The D66 leader is no stranger to Brussels. He was the Dutch Climate Minister during the energy crisis in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and made a strong impression by rapidly securing additional LNG capacity in the Netherlands. His European colleagues praised him for his expertise in the field and his ability to get along and communicate well with his fellow Ministers.
