CPB more pessimistic about economy, slightly lowers growth expectations
The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) has released new projections showing that the Dutch economy is expected to grow more slowly than previously forecast, as persistent geopolitical uncertainty and U.S. trade restrictions weigh on prospects.
According to the CPB, gross domestic product is now projected to expand by 1.7 percent in 2025 and by 1.3 percent in 2026. These figures represent a downward revision compared to earlier estimates published in the Central Economic Plan this spring. The lower growth outlook is mainly due to American import tariffs that are dampening world trade and adding uncertainty to international financial markets.
“In this uncertain time, the Netherlands is still doing well,” CPB Director Pieter Hasekamp stated. But he warned that the outlook is becoming less favorable. “The economy continues to grow moderately due to the strong domestic demand in the form of household consumption and government expenditures,” the CPB reported.
Despite the downgrade in growth expectations, the agency said purchasing power is still set to improve. Median purchasing power, which measures how much households can buy after accounting for inflation, is predicted to rise by 0.7 percent in 2025 and by 1.0 percent in 2026, largely because real wages are expected to increase.
The poverty rate is forecast to decline from 3.5 percent of the population in 2024 to 2.8 percent in 2026. Unemployment is projected to remain low, increasing only slightly from 3.7 percent this year to 4.0 percent in 2026.
The CPB’s projections are based on the budget published in the Spring Memorandum 2025 and will serve as the baseline scenario for assessing political parties’ election programs.
The agency normally issues its annual forecast in August but released it a month earlier this year to give parties more time to have their plans analyzed ahead of elections. A final version incorporating the next government’s policies will be presented on Prinsjesdag in September.
