Climate Minister unveils new plan to cut emissions, but critics doubt feasibility

Minister Sophie Hermans of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy presented a new climate package on Saturday, designed to reduce emissions, lower energy costs in the Netherlands, and decrease the country’s reliance on foreign energy. However, early reactions suggest that the plan is unlikely to be enough to meet the Netherlands' legally binding 2030 climate target, NOS reports.

The government must reduce carbon emissions by 55 percent compared to 1990 levels by 2030. Hermans said she believes the target could now be “within reach” with the new measures, although she admitted the steps would likely fall short of achieving the goal outright. The Ministry for Climate and Green Growth estimates the entire package would save about 10 megatons of CO₂ emissions.

Experts said after an initial review that while this represents progress, it does not eliminate concerns about the overall feasibility of the Netherlands' climate policy. The new measures follow an alarming report last October by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, or PBL), which calculated that under the then-current policies, there was only about a 5 percent chance of meeting the 2030 emissions goal.

Before any definitive judgment can be made, PBL must recalculate based on the newly presented measures. However, projections already reportedly indicate significant hurdles. PBL had stated that if 8 megatons of CO₂ could be reduced, everything would need to go perfectly to achieve the target. A 50 percent probability would require a savings of 16 megatons, while near certainty (95 percent) would demand a 24 megaton reduction.

Given this context, many experts remain skeptical that the proposed 10 megaton reduction will be sufficient. They warned there is a high likelihood that additional CO₂ reductions will still be necessary. Nevertheless, they acknowledged that any savings, however limited, could marginally improve the country's slim chances.

Reactions from industry leaders were significantly more positive. The Port of Rotterdam said the government's measures would support efforts to make the critical industrial area more sustainable. The trade association Deltalinqs described the steps as “a number of good measures to allow the basic industry to look to the future with more confidence.”

Companies in the port specifically welcomed plans to simplify procedures for laying electricity cables, expand carbon capture and storage efforts, and scrap a proposed plastic tax. Deltalinqs chairman Victor van der Chijs emphasized that more must still be done. He urged the government to move ahead with its intention to lower electricity grid fees in the upcoming Prinsjesdag announcements, especially given that Germany and Belgium are also making aggressive moves in this area.

Environmental and climate organizations responded harshly to Hermans' package, particularly criticizing the reintroduction of a fossil fuel subsidy through the Indirect Cost Compensation (Indirecte Kostencompensatie, IKC). This subsidy would offset higher electricity costs for large industrial consumers resulting from the European Union's emissions trading system.

Activists from climate groups Wise, Fossielvrij, and Extinction Rebellion staged a protest by placing stickers on the Ministry of Climate and Green Growth, renaming it the "Ministry of Fossil and Dirty Growth." Lisanne Boersma, director of Wise, said to NOS, "Instead of tackling the climate crisis, the minister is offering extra fossil subsidies to industry. This is completely absurd."

Renske Wienen, director of Fossielvrij, also told NOS, "This cabinet chooses to invest billions in the fossil industry while we are crashing through all climate boundaries." Wienen added that the climate package "dramatically fails to meet the Netherlands’ own climate goals," and accused the government of not taking the climate crisis seriously.

Oxfam also criticized the plan, saying the government "clearly does not take the climate crisis seriously," specifically condemning the return of the IKC.

Meanwhile, business groups VNO-NCW and MKB-Nederland voiced ongoing concerns about high energy prices. The Federation for the Technology Industry (FME) said the measures fall short. The automotive trade group Bovag said much more is needed to accelerate the transition to electric mobility. “The current system is collapsing because it relies too heavily on taxes on fossil mobility,” a Bovag spokesperson said. However, Bovag welcomed the government's plan to present a proposal for car tax reform before the summer.