Some 250,000 workers at risk with stricter enforcement of false self-employment rules

The stricter enforcement of false self-employment may impact 250,000 self-employed people, ABN Amro estimates. Especially healthcare, childcare, education, and government agencies should see stricter checks on self-employed people, the bank thinks.

The Tax Authority is going to check and enforce from January 1 whether self-employed people are not doing the same tasks as salaried people. The Netherlands has 1.25 million self-employed people.

ABN Amro thinks that false self-employment happens most often in the healthcare sector. The number of self-employed people has risen by 60 percent in the sector in the last five years. In healthcare, there is often an authoritative relationship because the work is part of fixed schedules and has a structural character.

Self-employed people in the construction sector are usually hired for specialist or temporary jobs, the ABN Amro said. Despite this, there is still a lot of false self-employment in this sector, the bank thinks.

The Tax Authority announced that they will usually not issue fines in the beginning, but added that employers need to take “serious steps” to avoid false self-employment, said ABN Amro economist Mario Bersem. “At the same time, the government needs to give more clarity to ensure that calm returns to the labor market.”

Bersem is pleading for the quick implementation of a new law that will make a stricter distinction between salaried employees and self-employed people.

Various sectors, like healthcare and childcare, have spoken publicly about their concerns. For example, the healthcare sector is in uncertainty, because the extent of the consequences of enforcement is still difficult to predict.

Some self-employed people are going to become contracted workers, but others are going to quit, labor organization for health care personnel, NU’91 said.

The childcare sector fears that childcare will become more expensive because intermediaries, such as employment agencies, will contract self-employed persons and thus increase the prices of staff.

In addition, the economy is going to grow at an increased rate next year, ABN Amro expects. This year has seen moderate growth, but the prospects for 2025 seem to be more optimistic. The bank is expecting growth in all sectors, with the exception of the agriculture sector. A 2.5 percent shrinkage is expected in that sector.

Especially the technology, media, and telecom sectors are expected to have a significant increase in growth of five percent. The industrial sector and the healthcare sector will grow by four percent, ABN Amro expects.