Existing home prices increased 7.8% Q3; Rise will continue, ABN Amro expects

Existing homes became 7.8 percent more expensive in the third quarter of 2025 compared to a year earlier, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the Land Registry reported. The increase weakened slightly compared to the previous quarter. ABN Amro expects Dutch home prices will continue to rise in the coming years, but less steeply than in the past two years. The bank expects home prices to rise 3 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2027.

According to CBS, the average price of an existing home in the third quarter was €487,000. That is 1.8 percent more than in the second quarter. Prices of newly constructed homes rose slightly less from July to September, with an increase of 7.4 percent. On average, these homes cost €523,000. In the second quarter, the difference was 8 percent compared to the previous year.

In the third quarter, almost 6,000 newly constructed homes were sold, 12.7 percent fewer than a year earlier. This is the first decline since 2023. Almost 63,000 existing homes were sold, 15.6 percent more than the previous year.

In the European Union, home prices rose by an average of 5.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. Dutch home prices increased by more. Prices for all owner-occupied homes, including both new and existing homes, increased by 7.7 percent.

ABN Amro expects home prices to continue to increase as a result of rising household incomes and limited supply. The bank expects modest economic growth of 1.2 percent in 2026 and 1.4 percent in 2027, and slightly declining inflation in the coming two years. This will give households more money to spend.

At the same time, the housing supply is not increasing. The supply of new homes has been on a downward trend since 2023. There is a growing pipeline of projects, but the lead time for these projects is between eight and twelve years.

Rising mortgage interest rates will dampen the growth in home prices slightly. These rates remained relatively stable over the past year. “However, at the end of 2025, most banks announced slight increases in mortgage interest rates,” the bank said. Many eurozone countries are also planning to take on more debt, which makes the bank think that interest rates on government bonds will rise. “This will then lead to higher mortgage rates, which will increase financing cost and therefore decrease housing demand.”

ABN Amro expects home prices will increase by 3 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2027.