New Dutch model can better predict how quickly Alzheimer's patients will deteroriate

A new calculation model developed by the Alzheimer Center Amsterdam lets doctors better predict how quickly patients with Alzheimer’s will deteriorate. The model uses data from almost 1,000 patients and includes factors like a brain scan, gender, and age.

“With an Alzheimer’s diagnosis, you know one thing for sure, and that is that people’s thinking capacity will deteriorate. But how quickly that happens varies greatly per person,” scientific director Wiejse van der Flier of the Alzheimer Center Amsterdam told NOS. “And that is exactly what people want to know first: what they can expect from the course of the disease.”

The model helps doctors at Amsterdam UMC to give patients a better glimpse into their future. “We used a simple test that has been administered several times over the years to a group of patients. We compared it with what we already knew at the time of diagnosis. With this data, we can make a prediction for new patients about the deterioration of their minds.”

Van der Flier stressed that it is still just a forecast, and nothing is certain. “It is still a look into the future, so it remains a prediction with uncertainty,” she said. “But despite that uncertainty, people want the information. Explain that uncertainty to me, patients say.” She continued: “The model is the starting point for a good conversation between doctor and patient about the disease. What do we know, and what is the uncertainty? It is a calculation model to support the doctor.”