Netherlands should aim for "moderate" population growth to 20 million people in 2050

The Netherlands will be in the best position for strong future prospects if the country’s population “grows moderately” in the coming years. The country should aim for a total number of inhabitants of between 19 and 20 million people in 2050, said the Staatscommissie Demografische Ontwikkelingen on Monday. With this population level, it should be possible to have sufficient housing, healthcare, and education to be accessible, and promote quality of life.

A decline from the current 18 million inhabitants, or a strong growth of the population to between 21 and 23 million residents offers a poorer perspective on a liveable society, the report stated. The commission was formed by the Cabinet in 2022 to produce policy advice to current and future government officials as aging and immigration change the composition of the population.

It is necessary for politicians to come up with a long-term vision and make choices about migration, the commission continued. This mainly concerns the scale and forms of immigration. Future policy must focus on a high-quality economy and broad prosperity as starting points. “We have to make choices about immigration and put the quality of the economy and social cohesion first,” said Richard van Zwol, the commission’s chair. He previously worked as the most senior civil servant in several ministries and also advises the Council of State.

“By already aiming for moderate population growth towards 2050, scarcity of facilities and inequality between groups in society are limited as much as possible,” said Van Zwol. The political considerations must be interrelated, the advice noted.

The commission pointed out that the composition of the population will change in the coming years. More people with diverse cultural backgrounds already live in the Netherlands, and there are more elderly people. The aging population will reach a peak in the next 10 to 15 years, and after that, we will remain an “older” society, the commission wrote. The aging population will lead to greater staff shortages in healthcare and education. The problems with these facilities are different in every region.

In addition, the commission foresees other increasing differences between people, such as between young and old, in education level, and between people with or without an immigration background. The differences impact social cohesion in society. The commission, therefore, believes it is necessary for politicians to aim for moderate population growth and to make long-term decisions in the area of space and housing, the economy, and public facilities.

The Cabinet established the State Commission over a year ago at the request of the lower house of the Dutch parliament. It aims to gain insight into demographic developments, their consequences, and possible (political) solutions.