Parties in Cabinet formation still facing many obstacles to progress, expert says

The political expert assigned to see if initial discussions can progress to the formation of a new Cabinet released his first report on Monday evening about the conversations he has had with party leaders following last month’s election. In the five-page document, Ronald Plasterk advised a new round of talks to see if the PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB can initially reach an agreement on key issues regarding the preservation of the Constitution, fundamental rights, and the rule of law before seeing if they can find common ground on a multitude of other issues that the next Cabinet will need to tackle.

Plasterk handed over a copy of his report to Roelien Kamminga, the interim chair of the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Parliament. In his report, Plasterk wrote that these four parties should now discuss the appointment of an informal discussion leader, an "informant," that would investigate whether an agreement can be reached on these issues.

Only once these parties find common ground on these initial points should an informant then assess the feasibility of reaching consensus on broader topics. These include migration, social security (bestaandzekerheid), good governance (goed bestuur), international policy, climate, nitrogen, agriculture, horticulture, and fisheries. Although “international policy” is mentioned broadly, funding for Ukraine was not mentioned specifically. The issue was a key topic during the political campaigns ahead of the election, and there is a wide gap between the PVV, which wants to cut aid to Ukraine, and both the VVD and NSC.

Plasterk also wrote in his report that Omtzigt does not wish to join a minority Cabinet of PVV, NSC, and BBB but would possibly be willing to support a coalition of PVV, VVD, and BBB from the Tweede Kamer. "He is unwilling, due in part to the PVV's election program and statements by the PVV's list leader and their relationship to the Constitution, to start negotiations with the PVV on a majority or minority government at this time. It must first become clear whether parties share a common understanding of the rule of law," the formation scout wrote.

Several parties have already expressed major concerns about the unconstitutional goals in the PVV’s election program - banning mosques and the Koran and blocking the reception of any more asylum seekers, for example. They also disagree about what form the coalition Cabinet should take.

The objective of the preliminary information phase, as Plasterk outlined, is “to determine whether there is a basis for a further round of information on a form of political cooperation that forms the foundation for a stable Cabinet.” The preliminary information round should take place between December 2023 and January 2024, with the informant expected to submit a report to the President of the Tweede Kamer by the beginning of February at the latest.

The Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament, will debate the report on Wednesday. Typically, the parliamentarians appoint one or two “informants” to pursue talks with the parties suggested by the scout and negotiate a coalition agreement.

The rest of the formation was already expected to be complicated. The three main obstacles to the PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB ruling together was already reported last week, as well as the differing views the parties have regarding what key issues demand more focus. Clearing these obstacles could take months, and failure to compromise on any one of them could cause the process to collapse and start over.

After winning 34 seats in the election, 20 more than after the 2021 parliamentary election, PVV leader Geert Wilders hoped for a majority right-wing coalition with the PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB. But the VVD quickly announced that it would not join as part of the next Cabinet. The right-wing liberals are only willing to offer tacit support to a center-right minority Cabinet consisting of the PVV, NSC, and BBB. Despite opposition to this position from VVD members and voters, leader Dilan Yeşilgöz has stuck to her guns.

The NSC also proved reluctant to negotiate a coalition with the PVV. And NSC leader Omtzigt has repeatedly said he’d prefer a minority business Cabinet with experts at the head of each Ministry and parliamentarians who have more power in adopting or shooting down legislation and plans.

In his report published on Monday, Plasterk noted that the leaders of PvdA/GL, NSC, D66, BBB, SP, CDA, and Volt did not see a basis at the moment for exploring participation in a left-wing coalition consisting of PvdA/GL, D66, and two or more other parties in the first information round.

The formation process was already off to a rough start. Plasterk had to PVV Senator Gom van Strien as the formation scout before Van Strien even had his first meetings with the party leaders. Van Strien stepped down after NRC revealed his former employer suspects him of fraud.