Hoekstra doesn't have much hope for successful climate summit amid war-torn world

In a world of war and conflict and clashing superpowers, EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is not very hopeful for success at the COP28 climate summit, the Dutch politician told NRC on Wednesday, the eve before the summit in Dubai. The COP28 will be his first major task as Climate Commissioner - he succeeded Frans Timmermans less than two months ago.

There is a lot at stake, but the geopolitical preconditions are difficult, Hoekstra told NRC. “I sense that in all the conversations I have. For some, the disastrous war that the Russians are inflicting on Ukraine is very high in the frontal lobe. For others, it is the great unrest in the Middle East. But also think of the tension in the Indo-Pacific.”

In this world of war and clashing superpowers, with everyone looking only to their own interests, negotiating about the climate is very challenging. “You must, therefore, be realistic about how difficult the competition is that we are entering into together,” he said. “To be fair, the chance of success is not very great, but paradoxically, it is very necessary.”

Hoekstra assumes that the scientific consensus at the summit will be that the planet is in dire straits and big interventions are the only option left. “It makes it both easier and more difficult. While in normal negotiations, you can say, ‘we have to land somewhere in the middle,’ the harsh reality here is that that is not good enough. So that is a major responsibility for the EU and also for me personally.”

The former Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs intends to pressure more prosperous former developing countries like China and the Gulf States to do more for the climate. "Europe shares our ambition with a very large group of countries from the Global South. That offers room for negotiations."

The outgoing Dutch Cabinet will send various Ministers to the COP28, which runs from November 30 to December 12 in Dubai. Prime Minister Mark Rutte will attend the official opening of the summit on December 1, meet with government leaders, and attend various meetings and work sessions.

Ministers Rob Jetten for Climate and Energy, Sigrid Kaag of Finance, Ernst Kuipers of Public Health, Christianne van der Wal for Nature and Nitrogen, Mark Harbers of Infrastructure and Water Management, and State Secretary Vivianne Heijnen of Infrastructure and Water Management will also participate in the CPO28 on various days.

The Netherlands is committed to making sure the goals of the 2015 climate agreement remain in sight, the government said. The Netherlands will also look for support in phasing out fossil subsidies and work on a Damage and Loss Fund with broad financing for the most vulnerable countries.

How well these commitments will hold up under a new Cabinet, possibly led by far-right Geert Wilders after his PVV’s major win in the parliamentary elections last week, remains to be seen.