Stats office lowers Dutch life expectancy

In 2019, 65-year-olds can expect another 20.89 years of life, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported on Friday. The life expectancy in 2029 is lower than in the previous forecast’s 21.16 years. “Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, more people have died than expected before the pandemic. This increase in mortality resulted in lower life expectancy,” the statistics office said.

The recovery in life expectancy after the pandemic is also taking longer than expected. CBS, therefore, lowered the life expectancy. “Until now, people only lived longer than those born before them,” CBS sociologist Tanja Traag told the Telegraaf. The coronavirus pandemic was a “kink in the cable,” she said.

“The recovery from the current excess mortality after the pandemic is taking longer than expected,” Traag said. “The number of people who have died this year is lower than in 2021 and 2022, but still higher than for 2019.”

This year, there is still excess mortality, especially among older people. “And we also see the [coronavirus pandemic] effects last longer when it comes to the psychological well-being of young people. We are still not completely rid of the coronavirus,” Traag said to the newspaper.

The life expectancy adjustment will have financial consequences for people born in 1964. The government uses the CBS life expectancy figures to set the state pension age. According to the Old Age Act, the state pension age will be 67 from 2024 until 2027. In 2028, it will be 67 years and 3 months. According to Telegraaf’s calculations, the state pension age will not increase in 2029.

Life expectancy from age 65 increased from 14.3 years in 1950 to 20.1 years in 2019. The increase wasn’t even, with periods when the trend accelerated or slowed down. The coronavirus pandemic led to a decrease in life expectancy to 19.5 years from age 65 in 2020. It remained stable in 2021. In both years, approximately 10 percent more people died than expected.

In 2022, there was still excess mortality, but life expectancy increased to 19.7 years. In the future, CBS expects life expectancy to increase further to 20.89 years in 2029. In the statistics office’s previous forecast, this was 21.16 years.