Netherlands population to hit 20.7 million by 2070

The population of the Netherlands will continue to grow over the next 50 years, mainly due to immigration and a longer lifespan. By 2070, the Netherlands will have 20.7 million inhabitants, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported in its Population Forecast 2022-2070. By 2040, a quarter of the population will be 65 or older. The number of over-80-year-olds will double in the next 20 years.

The stats office expects population growth to hit 227,000 people this year. That is 111,000 more than in 2021. The Dutch population will cross the 18 million mark in 2024 and 19 million in 2034, CBS expects.

“The population is expected to grow relatively quickly in the coming years, but the rate of growth will slow down after that,” CBS said. According to the current forecast, the Netherlands will hit 20 million inhabitants in 2056.

Over the past years, the Dutch population mainly grew through foreign migration, and that will likely remain the case, CBS expects. Another significant factor is the aging population. People are living longer and longer, so the natural growth calculation - the number of children born minus the number of people who died - is turning positive. This is especially the case in the coming years - many older people died in the coronavirus pandemic, so CBS expects the number of deaths to be lower in the coming years. From 2025, the number of deaths will likely increase steadily again.

The share of Netherlands residents over 65 will increase from 20 percent at the end of 2022 to 25 percent around 2040. “This is the result of the post-war baby boom and the large number of births in the 1960s, as well as the rising lifespan,” CBS said.

CBS expects the number of older residents to stabilize between 2040 and 2050 when a smaller generation will reach the age of 65 and “many of the large post-war generation will die.” After 2050, the number of older residents will increase again, partly because the large generation of millennials will then reach 65.

The number of people aged 80 or older will double over the next 20 years, from 900,000 at the end of this year to 1.7 million in 2043. After that, the number will continue to rise to up to 2.1 million around 2054.

The share of Netherlands residents aged 20 to 65 will fall from 59 percent at the end of 2021 to 53 percent in 2070. The percentage of young people aged 0 to 20 will remain stable at around 21 percent.