UK think tank links drone flights above Dutch air bases to Russian shadow fleet
Drone activity over Volkel Air Base in Noord-Brabant and Eindhoven Air Base in Noord-Brabant in late 2025 was likely launched from Russian shadow fleet vessels operating off NATO coastlines, according to an analysis by the British-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The assessment is based on 144 reported drone sightings across 13 European countries since August 2024. The incidents involved professional, military-style drones measuring roughly 3 to 6 meters in width that flew at low altitude, often avoided radar detection and disappeared quickly after being observed. In all cases, their origin remained unconfirmed.
In the Netherlands, the institute identified nine incidents between November and December 2025. Volkel Air Base, a key Dutch military installation in Noord-Brabant, was reported as being targeted three times during that period. The base is considered highly sensitive due to the presumed storage of U.S. nuclear weapons.
On Nov. 21, 2025, Dutch military personnel observed up to 10 drones over Volkel Air Base between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. Ground forces attempted to shoot down the objects but were unsuccessful.
The following evening, unidentified drone activity over Eindhoven Air Base and nearby Eindhoven Airport led to the suspension of air traffic operations.
On Dec. 7, 2025, another drone sighting near Volkel prompted the deployment of F-35 fighter jets in an interception attempt. Gilze-Rijen Air Base in Noord-Brabant also recorded drone sightings during the same broader period, although it was not separately highlighted in the report’s main incident list.
The think tank said the activity is likely connected to Russia’s shadow fleet, a network of oil tankers operating under foreign flags to evade sanctions. Researchers identified three vessels as potentially linked to the incidents: the Cgas Leopard and the Tranquil Sea, both anchored in the North Sea off the Dutch coast during the relevant period; and the Arctica, anchored near Dunkirk, France, which was also observed near reported drone activity in Denmark and France.
According to the analysis, the vessels were likely used as launch and recovery platforms for drone operations. Satellite imagery and vessel tracking data placed them near multiple reported sightings. The report also noted that some ships appeared to disable tracking systems or use support vessels such as tugboats or salvage ships to avoid detection.
The drone activity was also reported near other sensitive NATO-linked sites in Europe, including RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, England. There, preparations were underway to host U.S. nuclear weapons. Drones were also spotted in Île Longue in France, a base housing nuclear missiles that can be launched in the sea.
Across Europe, drone sightings peaked in September and November 2025, when dozens of incidents were reported monthly near military and strategic infrastructure. The number of sightings declined sharply in early 2026, which researchers partially attributed to European naval operations targeting suspected shadow fleet vessels.
The institute said not all sightings were confirmed as drones and that attribution remains uncertain in individual cases. It also noted that small drones can be difficult for radar systems to detect. Therefore, some reports may involve misidentified aircraft.
