Dutch summer forecast points to warm, dry conditions and likely hot early summer
The Netherlands is concluding a sunny and dry spring with increasing temperatures, paving the way for a summer that seasonal forecasts suggest will probably be warm and dry, with a high probability of hot weather in early summer. June and July are expected to be warmer and drier than normal, WeerOnline said.
Showers are still expected, but typically short and intense, with long dry intervals of pleasant weather in between. Continued dryness could intensify, particularly if southern winds develop, increasing the likelihood of hot conditions. Forecasters suggest the season could become the 23rd warmest summer of the century.
However, they stress that seasonal models are not as reliable as short-term forecasts. The models indicate broad trends rather than specific outcomes, and even within a generally warm month, colder periods can still occur. Predictability is higher in summer and winter than in spring and autumn, when atmospheric transitions are more variable.
A “normal” summer, based on the 1996–2025 climate period, is defined by continued warming since the 1980s. In De Bilt, the average summer temperature rose from 16.1 degrees during 1951–1980 to 17.6 degrees during 1996–2025.
Average summer maximum temperatures increased from 20.7 to 22.5 degrees. The number of days at or above 20 degrees rose from 49 to 66, and the number of days at or above 25 degrees increased from 13 to 23, a trend expected to continue.
Across this century, 85 percent of summers have been warmer than average. Only two summers were colder than normal, and two were near average. The last cold summer was 2011, with an average temperature of 16.3 degrees and a maximum of 20.6 degrees, conditions comparable to a typical 1950s summer.
That year saw only seven warm days and was also very wet. Last year, by contrast, was warm, featuring two official heatwaves, multiple temperature records, and a rare extremely hot day.
This year’s spring has been sunny and dry, but meteorological analysis shows no statistical link between dry springs and dry summers. Weather patterns in the Netherlands often change across seasons. Historically, 50 percent of summers are average in rainfall, 20 percent are dry, and 30 percent are wetter than normal.
The temperature of the North Sea is also a factor. It currently sits near 13 degrees, a normal value for this time of year. A warmer-than-usual sea can enhance heavy showers, while a cooler sea tends to support more sunshine along coastal areas.
If summer begins warm, the sea may heat further, later contributing to stronger coastal storms and rainfall.
Meanwhile, on Sunday, the municipality of The Hague urged beachgoers heading to Scheveningen and Kijkduin to travel by bicycle, scooter, or public transport, as parking areas at both locations were already full. Alternatively, drivers can use parking garages in downtown The Hague and then continue their journey by tram or bus.
