Middle East conflict pushes diesel above €2.50; Drivers rush to stock up

Dutch motorists are facing rising fuel prices this week as global oil costs climb following escalating conflict in the Middle East. Fuel expert Derk Foolen from the consumer organization UnitedConsumers said Monday that drivers will notice “the first effects of the major changes” at the pump.

The advisory price for diesel is expected to rise above 2.50 euros per liter, up from 2.46 euros. The record of 2.37 euros per liter was already surpassed on Friday.

Before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict just over a week ago, diesel was priced at 2.09 euros per liter. Euro95 gasoline now stands at 2.39 euros per liter, up from 2.28 euros, approaching the record above 2.50 euros set in June 2022 during the war in Ukraine. Advisory prices from major oil companies generally apply only along highways, while stations elsewhere may charge lower rates.

With continued unrest, oil prices are expected to keep climbing. UnitedConsumers anticipates that the diesel advisory price will rise further, surpassing 2.50 euros per liter, while Euro95 is projected at 2.39 euros.

Regarding global oil prices, U.S. crude rose above 100 dollars per barrel on Monday morning for the first time since mid-2022 and briefly approached 120 dollars per barrel, equivalent to roughly 87 to 105 dollars per barrel. The increase followed production cuts by major oil exporters, including Kuwait, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Middle Eastern fuel exports.

The G7 countries are reportedly considering releasing strategic oil reserves to curb prices, but Foolen does not expect this to significantly reduce pump prices in the short term.

Station operators report that motorists are responding strongly to the rapid price increases. Immediately after the Middle East conflict began, many drivers filled up to avoid higher costs.

Martin van Eijk, chairman of fuel station association Drive, said, “Refueling threatens to become unaffordable for Dutch citizens.” Drive is calling for the reinstatement of fuel excise tax reductions or a lowering of VAT to ease the burden. Drive expects extra congestion at pumps in the coming days as tanks emptied during the initial rush.

Van Eijk also said that some consumers are stockpiling fuel in jerrycans. “You really do see this hoarding. And I understand it, but a few days later you will have to refuel again,” he said, predicting the behavior will continue as prices rise further.

Drivers near the borders are increasingly choosing to fuel in neighboring countries. “These pumps were busier early last week, but over the weekend people all crossed the border anyway,” Van Eijk added.

In central regions, weekend queues of ten to fifteen minutes were reported, though he added, “But it’s still manageable; I haven’t seen cars lined up onto the road.”