Rabobank predicts steady Dutch economic growth despite rising unemployment

Rabobank economists expect the Dutch economy to continue expanding over the next several years. They estimate growth will reach 1.7 percent this year, followed by a steady 1.3 percent pace in both 2026 and 2027.

Rabobank attributes the expected expansion largely to stronger consumer spending and higher public outlays. With purchasing power improving, households are spending more, while the government is ramping up expenditures in response to an aging population and new defense investments, the bank notes in its quarterly economic update.

Despite the broader economic growth, Rabobank expects unemployment to edge up in the years ahead. After averaging 3.9 percent in 2025, the rate is projected to rise to 4.1 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027.

According to the bank, this reflects a labor market that is expanding more slowly than the working-age population. With fewer vacancies, particularly in the private sector, new entrants are finding it harder to secure a job right away, and fewer unemployed people are moving back into work.

Rabobank projects inflation to come in at just over 3 percent this year, before easing to 2.5 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. At the same time, wages are set to grow faster, by 4.2 percent in 2026 and 3.3 percent in 2027, helping to boost the average purchasing power of households.

The bank further expects that government spending, which has grown strongly over the past five years, will continue to rise. “The expansion of defense and the increasing demand for healthcare due to an aging population are key drivers of this growth,” the researchers conclude.