Dutch companies brace for U.S. election's potential impact on trade

As the U.S. election approaches, Dutch companies are preparing for potential economic fallout from the outcome. The trade relationship between the Netherlands and the United States is crucial, with both economists and business owners expressing concern over the possible introduction of new trade policies.

Republican candidate Donald Trump has proposed a 10 percent universal import tariff aimed at protecting American businesses. This has raised alarms in the Netherlands, where key sectors like chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and transportation depend heavily on U.S. trade. Rabobank estimates that a Trump victory could shrink the Dutch economy by €10 billion in the long term, compared to a win by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

Dutch exports to the U.S. totaled €33.8 billion in 2023, with products ranging from steel to mushrooms. However, the country imports even more from the U.S., primarily crude oil and natural gas, accounting for about 10 percent of all Dutch imports. This dependence makes the Netherlands vulnerable to shifts in U.S. trade policy.

The mushroom processing company Scelta Mushrooms, based in Venlo, has already felt the effects of election uncertainty. Potential American clients have delayed investments, according to co-owner Jules Klerken, who says customers are hesitant to take risks before the election results are known.

Other Dutch businesses, such as Tata Steel Netherlands, are preparing for various possible outcomes but are waiting for the election results before making any moves. Some business owners, like Marco Groot of flower wholesale company FleuraMetz FM Group, believe that Trump’s policies may ultimately benefit Dutch companies by keeping taxes low, allowing for more financial flexibility.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan also expressed concern over the U.S. election’s impact on the global energy sector. During a visit to Washington, Sawan emphasized the need for “stability and predictability” for energy companies to make long-term decisions. He highlighted the importance of U.S. policies in shaping the future of energy, noting that political risk could affect investment decisions, especially in emerging technologies like hydrogen.

“The decisions made in Washington — the capital of the energy world — will have massive impacts,” Sawan said. He warned that shifts in U.S. government incentives, such as tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, could disrupt progress in clean energy development. He also stressed that liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains crucial to meeting industrial energy demand, particularly in Asia, where gas can help displace coal.

Sawan criticized the U.S. government’s halt on new gas export permits, saying it undermines global confidence in U.S. energy supplies. “If the U.S. does not supply it, others will,” he said. “What a shame not to create that opportunity in the U.S., especially for energy security.