Support for VVD and GroenLinks–PvdA leaders plummets ahead of elections

A large share of voters appear to be turning away from their party leaders ahead of the upcoming elections. According to a poll by Ipsos I&O for Nieuwsuur, roughly two-thirds of VVD and GroenLinks–PvdA supporters do not plan to vote for their party’s top candidate. Support for VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz has dropped sharply, with only 36 percent of the party’s base intending to back her, down from 85 percent in the last general election, according to NOS. Meanwhile, PVV leader Geert Wilders, who remains popular with his party, said Wednesday morning he will relaunch his campaign after claims he was under increased threats of violence were disproven.

GroenLinks–PvdA has also seen a drop in support for its lead candidate, falling from 46 to 32 percent. Political analyst Arjan Noorlander attributes this partly to the merger between GroenLinks and the PvdA. “For many voters, Timmermans still symbolizes that union, and they’re ready for someone new,” he explains.

While Yesilgöz and Timmermans struggle to rally their supporters, the PVV and CDA leaders continue to command loyalty from their bases. No fewer than 86 percent of PVV voters intend to back Geert Wilders, and 79 percent of CDA voters say they will support Henri Bontenbal, figures nearly unchanged from the last election.

The CDA leader’s popularity could put his party in a strong position to take part in a coalition. Despite the VVD and Yesilgoz both polling lower than in the past, he thinks he may be able to come to terms with the VVD faster than Timmerman’s party.

During the AD podcast Politiek Dichtbij, Bontenbal pointed out that the CDA and VVD share more common ground in their party programs, particularly on migration and defense. He also highlighted improved personal relations, recalling his good working experience with VVD members in past Rutte administrations. “I have found them to be a dependable coalition partner," he said.

Discontent with Yesilgöz has been simmering within the VVD for a while. Party members take issue with her populist approach, and according to Noorlander, the leadership is well aware of her waning appeal. “We’re seeing more and more VVD figures taking the stage themselves, such as by joining talk shows,” he notes. Still, Noorlander considers it improbable that anyone else within the party will surpass her on the candidate list.

The Nieuwsuur report released on Tuesday came out soon after another survey showed the PVV’s overall popularity sliding with just a few weeks to the election. Wilders then said Wednesday morning that he was resuming his campaign.

"Elections are coming up, it is campaign time and I feel a great responsibility for the Netherlands and all PVV voters," he wrote on social media, referencing planned appearances on television programs Vandaag Inside, children’s news show Jeugdjournaal, and the NOS Slotdebat.

Wilders temporarily suspended his campaign due to a rumor that his name was included on a list of possible attack targets crafted by an alleged terrorist cell in Belgium. Wilders has been living under self-imposed tight security for years and has repeatedly shared claims of threats against him.

"After all these years, I no longer know the feeling of personal freedom," he wrote on Wednesday. Other parties expressed their sympathy for Wilders. At the same time, they hinted that they did see opportunities to debate him safely.

The history of Dutch politics shows that an unpopular lead candidate can face serious repercussions. In the 2006 parliamentary election, VVD’s second candidate, Rita Verdonk, outpolled party leader Mark Rutte, prompting an internal review and ultimately her exit from the party.

Still, Noorlander believes a repeat of that episode is improbable for Yesilgöz, though he warns her standing could weaken if the VVD suffers a major loss of seats.

The poll also showed that voters don’t necessarily pick the lead candidate out of personal admiration or tactical reasoning. Some intentionally back lower-ranked candidates to promote certain issues or to boost female representation in Parliament.

Yet, as Noorlander points out, this alone doesn’t account for the weak support behind Timmermans and Yesilgöz. “People usually turn to candidates further down the list only when they’re not enthusiastic about the frontrunner,” he says, implying that the current lack of popularity largely mirrors how little these leaders resonate with their base.

The Tweede Kamer elections, for the lower house of Dutch parliament, will be held on October 29.