Study: Most labor migrants leave Netherlands in 10 years as jobs, partners drive stay
The majority of labor migrants working in the Netherlands depart within ten years, and their decision to stay or return home is closely linked to income, job security, and whether they have a partner. That conclusion comes from a new study by the Centraal Planbureau (CPB), which analyzed more than two decades of data on migrant workers.
The CPB reviewed anonymized records from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) covering the period from 1999 to 2022. The researchers tracked when foreign workers arrived, how long they remained, and which factors most influenced their decisions to stay or leave.
According to the study, nearly 75 percent of all foreign workers who came to the Netherlands since 1999 had returned to their country of origin within ten years. “There is a lot of attention on migration at the moment, and we see this reflected in politics,” CPB researcher Gerdien Meijerink said. “Certain political parties are concerned about the number of labor migrants coming here to work and the pressure that creates on, for example, housing. But we see that 75 percent return home within ten years, and some leave much earlier if, for instance, there is a recession and jobs disappear.”
The current number of labor migrants working in the Netherlands is approximately 850,000. Projections suggest this figure could rise to 1.2 million by 2030. Despite efforts by the demissionary cabinet to slow migration due to abuses and social pressures, reducing the flow of migrant workers is nearly impossible because of free movement rules within the European Union.
Most labor migrants are employed in agriculture, horticulture, distribution centers, construction, logistics, the food industry, and metalworking. About two-thirds originate from Eastern European countries such as Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. While many are directly employed, a significant share work through temporary employment agencies.
The CPB study highlighted that economic circumstances in both the Netherlands and migrants’ home countries play a decisive role in how long workers remain. Migrants tend to leave sooner if unemployment rises in the Netherlands or if their home country’s economy grows faster.
Losing a job has a strong effect: labor migrants who become unemployed are on average three times more likely to leave the Netherlands compared to their initial period of employment. Those who secure a new job after a period without work are about twice as likely to remain compared to their first job spell.
Income strongly correlates with length of stay. Among workers earning between 1,000 and 2,000 euros a month, 64 percent were still in the Netherlands after five years. For those earning 2,000 to 3,000 euros monthly, the share rose to 78 percent. Migrants with higher earnings — over 6,000 euros per month — stayed much longer, with 87 percent remaining after five years.
Having a partner also significantly increases the likelihood of staying, particularly when the partner was born in the Netherlands or when the couple lives together. Demographic characteristics such as household composition, gender, age, and region of birth also influenced how long workers stayed.
