ABN Amro warns Trump trade war could hurt Dutch tourism sector
The Dutch travel industry is vulnerable to fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war, according to a new report by economists at ABN Amro. The bank warned that while the American import tariffs do not directly affect the sector, the broader economic and diplomatic consequences could impact Dutch tourism and business travel, according to BNR.
The report highlights that American tourism and business travel represent more than 1 billion euros in revenue for the Netherlands. Much of that money comes from travelers booking trips through Dutch travel agencies, which arrange accommodations, transportation, guides, and excursions both in the Netherlands and across Europe.
Amsterdam in particular sees a high volume of American visitors. ABN Amro estimates that Americans account for approximately 11 percent of all visitors to the capital. Of the more than 1.5 million Americans who visited the Netherlands, 65 percent stayed in a hotel in Amsterdam. These travelers often choose four- or five-star hotels and frequently visit museums, shops, and restaurants.
The report also references a consumer survey conducted by MMGY Travel Intelligence in April. According to the survey, four out of five Americans said they had altered their travel behavior due to recent geopolitical developments. Many are opting for domestic destinations, cheaper modes of transportation, and shorter stays. The weaker dollar is also likely a factor, as it makes vacations in Europe more expensive for American tourists.
Despite these concerns, ABN Amro expects the Dutch leisure sector to grow by 1.5 percent this year. For 2026, the bank forecasts a more modest 1 percent increase, although it warns the industry will be affected by the planned value-added tax hike on hotel stays, which is set to rise from 9 to 21 percent. The growth is primarily driven by increased consumer purchasing power and a broader rise in tourism. According to ABN Amro, consumer spending in the hospitality industry remains strong.
