Dutch scientists warn of harsh winters, sea ice if Atlantic current collapses

Western Europe could face extreme climate disruptions, including sea ice off the Dutch coast and winter temperatures plunging to -20 degrees, if the Atlantic Ocean’s central current system weakens or shifts due to climate change, according to a new joint study by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and the University of Utrecht.

The study focused on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a critical component of global ocean circulation that includes the Gulf Stream. The AMOC transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, keeping Western Europe’s climate relatively mild. “For example, the Netherlands is at the same latitude as Canada, but the climate is much milder,” the researchers noted.

KNMI said recent data suggests the AMOC is weakening, although scientists disagree on how far the trend has progressed. The current is powered by the sinking of salty, dense water near Greenland. “Due to the increasing amount of precipitation and the melting of the Greenland ice cap, the water in the North Atlantic Ocean is becoming less salty, and therefore also less heavy,” KNMI said. This change could disrupt the current’s ability to circulate.

One modeled scenario assumes a global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, but even then, average global temperatures would rise by 2.7 degrees by the year 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. In that case, the Netherlands could see much colder winters, with average temperatures falling five degrees below current levels. “Without the AMOC, large parts of Europe would become the odd one out on the warming planet,” KNMI warned.

A weakened AMOC would have wide-reaching and severe consequences across Europe, researchers said. The study predicts more droughts, stronger and more frequent storms, and an accelerated rise in sea levels. “It is clear that a change in the AMOC would cause significant changes to the climate,” the KNMI stated in its report.

The institute emphasized that these findings are a “first estimation” and said further research is needed to better understand the full extent of the risks.