Experts: Freelancer disability insurance may cost less than estimated
The monthly premium for the Dutch government’s planned mandatory disability insurance (AOV) for self-employed workers can be lower than previously calculated by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, according to a report released Tuesday by the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association. The findings were submitted to both the Cabinet and the Tweede Kamer on May 13, 2025, and first reported by Het Financieele Dagblad.
The working group of actuaries found that the premium does not need to be set at the 6.5 percent rate currently used in government projections. Instead, the most realistic estimate, they concluded, is 5.6 percent of a self-employed person’s business profit. This lower premium applies under the condition of a one-year waiting period for benefits, as currently outlined in the legislative proposal.
The proposed AOV has sparked intense debate in recent months, largely due to concerns over the balance between premium costs and the benefits provided. The mandatory insurance would entitle self-employed workers to a disability benefit capped at the legal minimum wage. Several organizations representing self-employed professionals (zzp’ers) have criticized the government’s premium estimate, calling it excessive given the limited coverage.
“The premium calculation remains a mystery,” zzp groups have stated publicly. They argue that similar policies in the private insurance market offer equivalent minimum-wage coverage for around 3 percent of a person’s income.
That claim was directly refuted by Max Kaspers, an actuary and member of the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association’s working group. “I can confidently say that a 3 percent premium is nonsense,” Kaspers told FD.
Despite rejecting the 3 percent figure, the actuaries do acknowledge that the premium need not reach the 6.5 percent figure projected by the ministry. Their analysis, grounded in actuarial science, suggests that 5.6 percent is a more accurate and justifiable rate, assuming a one-year benefit deferral period is maintained.
