GroenLinks-PvdA overtakes Wilders’ PVV in Dutch poll for first time since election
Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV has lost its lead in the latest Dutch opinion poll for the first time since the general election 18 months ago, according to new data released by Maurice de Hond through his Peil.nl survey panel.
The poll, conducted over the weekend following the agreement on the Voorjaarsnota 2025 on April 16, shows that the left-wing opposition party GroenLinks-PvdA has surpassed the PVV, securing 29 seats, one more than Wilders’ party. The VVD, one of the current coalition partners, stands in third place with 26 seats. Wilders’ PVV, which currently holds 37 seats in the Tweede Kamer, has now dropped by a total of eight seats in projected support.
Pollster Maurice de Hond noted that public opinion had shifted significantly since February, when the PVV held an eight-seat advantage over its nearest rivals. Since then, the PVV has declined by four seats, while GroenLinks-PvdA and the VVD have each gained five seats out of a total of 150 available.
The broader political environment appears to have influenced voter behavior. De Hond pointed to the heightened focus on global security and the growing threat of a recession since Donald Trump’s return to the White House as factors pushing voters back toward mainstream parties.
Other parties are also experiencing notable shifts. The center-right CDA is showing a steady recovery, climbing to 19 seats after only securing five in the last election. Meanwhile, the progressive-liberal D66, which had been on an upward trajectory, is now losing support. De Hond suggested that former D66 voters are likely switching allegiance to GroenLinks-PvdA.
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC), led by Pieter Omtzigt until his resignation last week on health grounds, is facing a near-total collapse. The party is now projected to lose 19 of the 20 seats it won in the November 2023 elections. BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) is also in decline, falling to just three seats.
In addition to the seat projections, De Hond's research included voter reactions to nine key agreements from the Voorjaarsnota 2025. Voters were asked to rate their agreement with each measure on a scale from 0 to 10, with 5.0 representing a neutral position.
The proposal to allocate more than 1 billion euros to defense received the highest average rating at 7.0. Freezing social housing rents for two years followed with an average score of 5.8. Not increasing alcohol taxes and cutting the climate change budget both scored 5.1.
Other measures fared worse: shortening unemployment benefits (WW) from 24 to 18 months received a 4.7 average score, while cutting 1 billion euros from higher education and research scored 4.5. Providing 850 million euros extra for asylum reception was rated at 4.1. Investment in the Nedersaksenlijn railway between Groningen and Enschede, rather than the Lelylijn from Lelystad to Groningen, scored 3.9. The decision not to allocate additional funds to prisons received the lowest support, with an average score of 3.1.
The responses were further broken down by party preference, focusing on parties that currently have at least five seats. For BBB and NSC, which are coalition members but currently polling lower, voter responses from the November 2023 Tweede Kamer elections were used. Due to the PVV’s loss of nine seats compared to the election results, a separate category for PVV voters from that period was also included for reference.
In recognition of Koningsdag 2025, De Hond’s poll also asked voters about their views on the monarchy. Nationally, the statement "The Netherlands must always remain a monarchy" received an average score of 5.7, with CDA voters scoring it notably higher at 7.7. Conversely, the statement "Once King Willem-Alexander steps down, the Netherlands should become a republic" averaged 4.1 nationwide, with FVD voters scoring it much higher at 7.4.
Regarding performance evaluations, King Willem-Alexander received a 6.3 average rating for his role, with CDA voters again rating him higher at 7.6. Queen Máxima received an even higher national score of 6.6, with CDA supporters giving her an 8.0. The statement expressing sadness that Princess Amalia cannot have a normal youth scored 5.8 nationally, with GroenLinks-PvdA voters rating it higher at 6.6. Meanwhile, the statement that the King or Queen should have attended the Pope’s funeral received a 3.6 national score, with Partij voor de Dieren voters rating it slightly higher at 4.6.
