ING warns U.S. tariffs could slow Dutch economic growth, reshape transatlantic trade

ING economists have described the recent U.S. import tariffs as a dire blow to Europe's economic stability, marking a significant turning point for the Netherlands, according to BNR. In their initial response to the 20 percent tariffs, ING experts highlighted how these measures could significantly reshape the transatlantic trade relationship.

The full impact of the tariffs remains unclear, but the economists noted that U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to implement new tariffs effectively brings global tariff levels back to the 1930s. "Tariffs of 20 percent could reduce economic growth in the Eurozone by 0.3 percentage points over the next two years, when considering both direct and indirect trade impacts," the ING report stated.

For the Netherlands, which relies heavily on global trade, the effects of these tariffs are expected to ripple through the economy. ING economists emphasize that the consequences extend beyond just direct trade impacts, warning of secondary effects already undermining consumer and business confidence across Europe. "It is likely that consumption and investment will be slowed down," they said.

Due to these developments, ING has revised its growth forecast for the Eurozone this year to 0.6 percent, down from the previous 0.7 percent. For 2026, the forecast was also downgraded to 1 percent, from 1.4 percent.

Estimating the impact on inflation remains complex, the economists added, as it will depend largely on the European Union’s response. "If the EU retaliates, inflation in Europe will likely rise. At the same time, however, the U.S. tariffs may contribute to already high stock levels and low capacity utilization, which could help reduce price increases," ING noted.