ABN Amro experts predict a significant rise in bankruptcies in the catering industry

The number of bankruptcies of restaurants and other food establishments will likely hit record highs in 2025, ABN Amro experts on the matter have stated. They are expecting around 450 bankruptcies in the sector in the Netherlands. This would be double the amount of 2023. No numbers have been made available about the entirety of 2024.

“Although the Netherlands catering industry looked like it was recovering well from the coronavirus pandemic, the problems are now piling up again.” The experts said that this is due to a combination of increased costs, declining margins, and rising debts.

Inflation, higher energy bills, and rising rent and salary costs make it more challenging for business owners to get out of this financially. Another factor that could play a role is competition from supermarkets that are increasingly offering luxury ready-made products.

Especially the smaller food establishments with five to 50 employees struggle with problematic debts, according to ABN Amro. In addition, entrepreneurs in the sector seem to struggle more in smaller cities with a relatively high number of vacant shops, like Hengelo or Helmond.

The study, which was conducted in collaboration with Hotelschool The Hague, also pointed out the differences in the types of catering sector companies. Pancake restaurants are largely stable in number, usually thanks to beneficial locations and high labor productivity. Delivery restaurants have experienced positive growth over the last few years.

“The Dutch catering industry has a significant challenge in front of it,” the experts concluded. But it is possible to overcome the crisis. This could be done by responding to changing consumer needs and investing in digitalization. Experts mentioned changes like investing in software for inventory management. Technology could help reduce the amount of food that is being wasted and lower costs this way.

ING reported on Wednesday that the prospects for the catering industry are “moderately positive.” They are expecting a growth of three percent. “Thanks to an increase in purchasing power, the consumer will go out at catering establishments more often than in 2024.”

The prices in the catering industry will rise by an average of five percent, according to ING. Consumers were more reluctant to spend at food establishments due to the higher prices last year. ING also expected the number of bankruptcies in the hospitality industry to increase.