Falling trees cause rising injuries: study highlights policy gaps
Injuries caused by falling trees in rural areas have been rising sharply, increasing by an average of 13.2 percent per year from 1998 to 2021, according to new research by Inholland University of Applied Sciences and Wageningen University. This alarming trend, attributed to increased usage of rural areas and fragmented tree ownership, underscores the need for standardized safety policies across provincial and national levels.
The study analyzed data from all 12 Dutch provinces, 336 municipalities, 21 water boards, and 18 landscape management organizations. The research reveals a significant shift in risk over the past two decades. In 1998, the odds of being injured by a falling tree were 1 in 7 million. By 2021, that figure had dropped to 1 in 1 million, and if the trend continues, it could reach 1 in 170,000 by 2044 under current conditions.
Injuries from falling trees have risen more significantly outside urban areas than within. While urban injuries grew by only 3 percent annually—matching population growth—injuries in rural areas climbed steeply.
The disparity stems from differences in tree management practices. "Municipalities have taken tree management increasingly seriously over the last decade, driven by staff training, public pressure, legal rulings, and changing societal attitudes," said Marinus van Haaften, a researcher at the Knowledge Center for Agri, Food & Life Sciences at Inholland University and Wageningen University’s Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy.
“In contrast, the situation in rural areas is far less organized,” Van Haaften explained. Tree ownership is fragmented among provinces, water boards, landscape organizations, and private individuals, leading to inconsistent safety practices.
Municipalities routinely perform tree safety inspections and have developed comprehensive green management plans. However, such plans are largely absent in rural areas, except in some provinces.
For instance, Rijkswaterstaat, the national public works agency, outsources tree management to private road construction firms. "These companies prioritize profit and often lack in-house expertise in tree safety, which they must hire externally," said Van Haaften. "This setup may not guarantee safety standards. Public green maintenance has also historically been a low priority in government budgets."
Private landowners, who often lack knowledge of their legal obligations, contribute to the problem. "Many are unaware of their duty to conduct tree safety inspections under Article 6:162 of the Dutch Civil Code. Along roads, this can lead to hazardous situations," Van Haaften noted.
Contrary to popular belief, climate change and increased storm activity have not directly caused the rise in injuries, according to data from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). However, shifting rainfall patterns and prolonged droughts could weaken trees by affecting root systems. Trees may suffer from rising or falling groundwater levels, depending on precipitation trends. Certain species are more vulnerable than others.
Van Haaften emphasized the importance of selecting climate-resilient tree species for planting. "We need more research to determine which species are most stable under changing conditions. I’m currently studying this," he said.
"This study shouldn't lead to a backlash against trees," Van Haaften cautioned. "We must recognize that trees come with both benefits and risks. The solution lies in better maintenance and thoughtful planning of tree species and locations."
