Asylum policy has Cabinet wobbling; PVV still gaining voters with anti-immigrant stance

How to drastically reduce the number of people seeking asylum in the Netherlands has tensions high in the Schoof I Cabinet and coalition. The PVV is still committed to declaring an asylum crisis, the NSC has doubts. The parties are all waiting for one of the others to come up with a solution, and insiders worry that this could cause a Cabinet collapse, the Telegraaf reported. Geert Wilders’ persistence on this topic is going down well with voters, and the PVV is head and shoulders above the other parties in the polls, according to Ipsos I&O.

The PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB’s coalition plans state that the government will declare an asylum crisis with an emergency law and take far-reaching measures to drastically reduce the number of people seeking safety in the Netherlands. An emergency decree would mean that the government can implement plans without parliament’s approval - parliamentarians will only vote on measures taken three months after the fact. The plans also mention that this drastic measure must be “supportively motivated.”

NSC is holding onto that clause. After facing severe criticism during the budget debate, interim leader Nicolien van Vroonhoven said that the coalition party would only support an asylum crisis if the Council of State approves the plan. The VVD is now also insisting on that substantiation and does not rule out another route to strict asylum measures. Officials are also concerned about the feasibility, as shown by heavily redacted documents sent to parliament after the opposition parties and NSC insisted upon it.

Sources in the coalition told the Telegraaf that Wilders feels cornered by the NSC’s maneuver and refuses to simply give up on the emergency law. He does not want to be the loser in the discussion, the sources said. PVV Minister Marjolein Faber of Asylum is, therefore, heading full speed towards emergency measures, while NSC Ministers may not be able to support them, the newspaper’s sources said.

In the meantime, all those involved are retreating deeper into their shells and pointing fingers at each other to come up with a solution. The current plan is still for Faber’s package of emergency measures to go to the Council of Ministers for approval within a few weeks. If the Council of Ministers approves it, the Council of State will give advice, and the Ministers will have to figure out how to proceed. It is still unclear how or whether this impasse will be resolved. “I estimate there is a 50 percent chance that this Cabinet will still be in office next month,” a coalition source told the Telegraaf.

PVV doing well in the polls

In the meantime, Wilders’ dogged loyalty to his anti-immigration stances is doing wonders for the PVV among voters. A poll by research agency Ipos I&O shows that relatively many voters still see the reduction of asylum and migration as the most important issue facing the Netherlands, ANP reported. The PVV currently stands at 41 seats in the poll, admittedly 1 virtual seat less than last week, but still 4 more than the radical right-wing party currently has in parliament.

Quite a few voters who had voted for VVD, NSC, or BBB in last year’s parliamentary election would now choose the PVV instead. The VVD lost 2 seats this week, bringing the liberals to 6 fewer seats than they currently have in parliament. NSC dropped 1 seat this week, resulting in a loss of 14 seats compared to the election results. The smallest coalition party, BBB, remains at 5 polled seats, 2 less than it currently has.

Left-wing GroenLinks-PvdA is a distant second in the poll with 25 seats, the same as the party currently has.