Latest poll: PVV would win over a third of MP seats; NSC and VVD drop sharply

According to the latest poll by Maurice de Hond, there is a strong increase in seats for the right-wing parties. The latest results showed that Geert Wilders’ PVV would win 52 seats in new elections, the political pollster said on the TV program WNL. This is around 15 seats more than in the Tweede Kamer elections in November 2023 and 35 seats more than in the 2021 elections.

Na de verkiezingen kreeg de PVV van @geertwilderspvv 37 zetels en NSC 20 zetels. Na de breuk aan de formatietafel zijn de peilingen veranderd, dat laat @mauricedehond zien in #Op1. NSC is teruggezakt naar 11 en de PVV staat op maar liefst 52 zetels. #WNL pic.twitter.com/RiaSsu3CUe

— Café Kockelmann (@CafeKockelmann) February 9, 2024

The second strongest party with 25 seats is the GroenLinks-PvdA. However, the survey shows that nothing has changed in the party's seat distribution and that the left-leaning party also reached 25 seats during the November elections.

The fact that the PVV is gaining popularity among Dutch voters can be seen not only in the lack of votes for left-wing parties such as the GL-PvdA but also among conservative parties such as the NSC and VDD.

Voters have turned away massively from these two parties. If elections were held this week, the party of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte would only receive 13 seats in the Tweede Kamer. That would be 11 fewer seats than the party won over in the November elections last year, the lowest result since 1956, WNL reported.

The massive exodus of voters from the long-standing governing party can be explained as a consequence of the Rutte IV Cabinet's collapse in July and Dilan Yeşilgöz's reluctance to form a cabinet with the PVV.

Yeşilgöz has divided her party members by stating that the VVD will not join a Cabinet with the PVV, but that her party was willing to offer tacit support in Parliament for a center-right Cabinet.

The NSC also suffered losses. According to the poll, Pieter Omtzigt's party would only get 11 seats, which is roughly half what it won in the Tweede Kamer election late last year. According to De Hond, there is a polarization within the NSC. Voters who have left say that they no longer trust Omtzigt.

The lack of trust is also linked to the collapse of the Cabinet formation talks in the Netherlands, as NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt has withdrawn from the negotiations. Half of the NSC voters want a right-wing coalition, according to de Hond.

One of the winners of the latest poll is the CDA, which would rise from 5 to 8 seats. Despite the additional two seats, CDA leader Henri Bontenbal does not believe he has reached his goal yet.

"I still have a lot of work ahead of me. Our brand has been damaged. I think we need to continue to grow steadily. On the way to a stable CDA that can take the Netherlands forward," he said.

D66 and SP also gained one seat each.

Political polling data from February 9 against Tweede Kamer seats won in the 2023 Dutch General Election