Dutch beginning to trust politics again; Omtzigt losing support as possible PM

Confidence in national politics is rising for the first time in two years, according to an EenVandaag survey published on Friday. This increase in confidence appears to be attributed to the emergence of new party leaders and new parties, which are instilling hope in voters.

The survey was conducted among the almost 35,000 members of EenVandaag’s Opinion Panel.

Confidence in national politics has risen to 33 percent, returning to the level last seen in early March 2021. This marks an increase from the past two years, during which only about a quarter of people had reasonable or a lot of confidence in national politics.

People surveyed attribute their optimism to the emergence of new party leaders and parties in recent elections. High expectations are noted for Pieter Omtzigt and his New Social Contract (NSC). VVD supporters find Dilan Yeşilgöz’s presence to be “refreshing.” The left-wing alliance between PvdA and GroenLinks is viewed as a '” positive development.”

Voters express satisfaction with the election campaign, noting that debates are more focused on issues rather than personal attacks. This marks a significant change from previous elections, with panel members feeling that the current candidates' constructive attitude conveys more reliability than the outgoing Cabinet.

Despite some optimism, two-thirds (66 percent) of voters still have little or no confidence in politics. They are skeptical about significant changes, especially if the VVD remains the largest party. Some are also disappointed with the New Social Contract (NSC), notably due to its party leader Pieter Omtzigt being too vague on important matters.

Trust in national politics varies significantly among different voter groups. Supporters of parties that were part of the previous Cabinet, such as D66, ChristenUnie, VVD, and CDA, show the highest levels of confidence. On the other hand, a majority of voters supporting parties like PVV, FVD, BBB, SP, and BIJ1 show the most distrust, with little or no confidence in national politics.

A significant portion of non-voters in the panel, 88 percent, indicate that their low confidence in politics is a major reason for choosing not to exercise their right to vote.

Omtzigt losing support as possible PM

According to another survey published on Friday by EenVandaag, the uncertainty regarding whether Pieter Omtzigt wants to be prime minister is causing concern among voters. Pieter Omtzigt is now on par with VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz (45 percent). PVV leader Wilders is now almost as acceptable as prime minister to voters (29 percent) as Frans Timmermans of the leftwing alliance PvdA-GL (34 percent).

Pieter Omtzigt's hesitation to declare his intentions for the prime minister's role after the elections has affected his public perception. While 58 percent found him acceptable for the position in October, this has since dropped to 45 percent, with an almost equal proportion (43 percent) now viewing him as an unsuitable candidate for prime minister.

NSC voters, along with most who favor BBB, JA21, or SGP, still see Omtzigt as a suitable prime minister, valuing his knowledge, agreeing with his views, and believing in his ability to restore confidence in politics.

However, left-wing voters (GroenLinks-PvdA, SP, and PvdD), who previously found Omtzigt acceptable as prime minister, have changed their view. They now perceive him as “too doubtful,” “too right-wing,” and “too conservative” for the role. The notion that Omtzigt prefers to form a government with right-leaning parties like BBB, JA21, and SGP has deterred these voters, despite his later clarification that his statements were misinterpreted.

Dilan Yeşilgöz has 45 percent approval. She is recognized for her expertise and ministerial achievements, with her gender also playing a role in some views. However, resistance to her is largely due to her party.

Geert Wilders has seen a slight increase in support, with 29 percent now finding him an acceptable prime minister, largely from right-wing voters. BBB voters now view him more favorably, while most NSC voters are against him as prime minister.

On the left, Frans Timmermans, with 34 percent approval, faces resistance primarily from right-wing voters over his immigration and climate stances, but others praise his international experience as a valuable asset in handling global issues.

While the largest party in the Tweede Kamer typically provides the prime minister, this is not always the case. Notable exceptions occurred in 1977 and 1982 when the largest party, PvdA, did not join the coalition. Instead of PvdA leader Joop den Uyl, CDA leader Dries van Agt assumed the prime minister's role in 1977 and Ruud Lubbers in 1982.