NSC, VVD neck-and-neck in the polls; GroenLinks-PvdA down slightly
With two weeks to go before the parliamentary elections, the NSC (25 to 31 seats) and VVD (26 to 30 seats) are still neck-and-neck, according to the Peilingwijzer. GroenLinks-PvdA lags behind with 21 to 25 seats, NOS reports.
The Peilingwijzer is a weighted average of the I&O Research and Ipsos/EenVandaag polls made by political scientist Tom Louwerse. Two weeks ago, Louwerse reported no clear difference between the top three parties. This week, GroenLinks is a clear step below NSC and VVD.
According to Louwerse, Frans Timmermans did not have the hoped-for effect in the polls for GroenLinks-PvdA. “The GroenLinks-PvdA combination is approximately as high in the Peilingwijzer as it was before the parties decided to form a joint list. They have been at the same level for almost the entire year.”
According to Asher van der Schelde of I&O Research, voters don’t find Timmermans very convincing. Part of the problem is that the GroenLinks-PvdA campaign isn’t focused on climate change, a theme on which the left-wing parties score well.
NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt is doing well with the voters. According to I&O, voters found him the most convincing at both the College Tour and RTL election debates. Dilan Yesilgöz (VVD) is somewhere between Omtzigt and Timmermans. She scores particularly well among her own voters and is experienced as clear and realistic.
I&O also sees further opportunities for growth for Omtzigt’s NSC, which Van der Schelde called surprising. “Omtzigt attracts voters from the left and right, which is difficult to keep together. We expected he would lose some when his election program became known, but we see that many people who did not yet have a preference now also choose him.”
Van de Schelde also called it smart that Omtzigt refuses to say whether he wants to be Prime Minister. “Suppose he does not want to be Prime Minister, then he has to appoint someone, and then there is a chance that people will say that it no longer works for them.”
The political scientists stressed that it is not a done deal yet. GroenLinks-PvdA also still has growth potential and can win over voters who currently think they’ll vote for D66 or Volt. The past has also shown that there can be significant shifts in the last week before the election, Louwerse said.
The PVV is currently the fourth largest party on the Peilingwijzer, with 16-20 seats. “After an increase, the PVV’s number of seats has stabilized around the level it had last time. There has been no real breakthrough,” Louwerse said.
BBB is clearly losing favor and now stands at 7-11 seats, almost the same level as the D66 (6-10 seats). According to Louwerse, the NSC and BBB are electoral competitors, and the NSC is clearly winning the battle.
The PvdD stands at 6-8 seats, SP at 4-6, and Volt, FvD, CDA, DENK, and ChristenUnie all at 3-5. SGP has 2-4, JA21 has dropped to 0-2, and BIJ1 and 50Plus both have 0-1 seats.
