Trains can replace 5,600 flights from Schiphol to 13 cities by 2030: Study

Trains could replace approximately 5,600 flights annually from Schiphol to 13 cities by 2030, according to a study by the Knowledge Institute for Mobility Policy (KiM) published on Tuesday. This would concern European cities with direct flights from Schiphol situated no more than 800 kilometers from Amsterdam.

The institute examined various developments in the rail service for connections between Amsterdam and London, Bristol, Birmingham, Paris, Basel, Brussels, Berlin, Hannover, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Munich, and Copenhagen.

The KiM estimates that around 5,600 flights to and from these cities could be replaced with rail travel by 2030. With an average aircraft occupancy of 150 passengers, this translates to roughly 850,000 journeys annually. By 2040, this could increase to 11,000 flights, equivalent to 1.6 million journeys per year. This accounts for 6 percent and 10 percent of air travel on these connections, respectively.

The KiM's projections are based on reduced travel times and an increase in daily travel options for train passengers on these connections. If transfer-related inconveniences are reduced, and rail travel becomes 20 percent cheaper, the shift from plane to train could even rise to about 2.4 million air journeys in 2030 and 3.4 million air journeys by 2040, according to the institute.

KiM's projections for shifting from air travel to rail travel are now lower than their estimates in 2018, primarily due to an expected one-fifth reduction in aviation volume on 13 European routes. The Covid-19 pandemic, causing decreased air travel, significantly contributes to this reduction, meaning fewer travelers might opt for trains over planes.