Likely Senate results: BBB the largest party; Left-wing can give coalition majority

As expected, the grassroots farmers’ political party, BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB), will become the largest party in the Eerste Kamer, the upper house of Dutch parliament. The party will almost certainly get 16 seats in total, one seat less than what was predicted.

GroenLinks and PvdA, which will form one left-wing party in the Eerste Kamer, will together take 14 seats. This on its own would be enough to help the coalition gain a majority to pass legislation. The coalition parties of the VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie together will hold 24 of the 75 seats in the Eerste Kamer. That is two seats more than in the initial forecast.

The Eerste Kamer has 75 seats in total, and the senators who take those seats are determined primarily by those who were voted into office during the Provincial Council elections in March. The prognosis of 17 seats for the BBB was created immediately after that election took place.

However, the provisional result from the ANP Elections Service deviated slightly from the forecasts. The difference is due to strategic voting. The voters are allowed to cast a ballot for different parties, which can therefore snatch a seat from others.

The seat that the BBB seemed to lose went to the CDA. The party narrowly won the last remaining seat. A GroenLinks council member from Zuid-Holland voted for Volt, and as a result, GroenLinks and PvdA missed out on a 15th seat. For Volt, that one vote was barely enough to earn a second seat.

The 75 members of the Eerste Kamer have been elected not only by the twelve Provincial Councils, but also by electoral colleges from the special municipalities of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba and by a new electoral college for Dutch nationals residing abroad.

The result is not yet final. The votes on Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba are not yet in. Moreover, the Electoral Council has yet to certify the results. That happens on Thursday.

The distribution of seats in the Eerste Kamer are expected to be: BBB 16 seats, GroenLinks/PvdA 14, VVD 10, CDA 6, D66 5, PVV 4, SP 3, ChristenUnie 3, PvdD 3, JA21 3, SGP 2, Volt 2, Forum voor Democratie 2, Onafhankelijke Politiek Nederland 1, 50PLUS 1.