Farmers' party BBB could get 18 seats in Senate election tomorrow

That the farmers’ party BBB will be the biggest party in the Senate after the election on Tuesday is certain. The party will almost certainly get 17 seats. But with the help of other parties, that may be 18, according to calculations by ANP’s Election Service.

The Eerste Kamer, the Dutch Senate, is elected by the 12 Provincial Councils, by electoral colleagues on Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba, and by a new electoral college that votes on behalf of Dutch citizens abroad. A total of 616 members will all cast their votes simultaneously at 3:00 p.m. on Tuesday.

Each vote is worth a certain number of points, depending on the number of inhabitants. For example, a vote in Zuid-Holland is good for 692 points, while a vote on Saba yields 4 points. In total, there are 178,970 points to be distributed. Each seat on the Senate is worth 2,386.27 points.

The members of the Provincial Councils are not obliged to vote for their own party. The system makes trading possible. Parties sometimes have votes to spare - votes they can give to others without costing them a seat. Parties with that space in this election include the Onafhankelijke Politiek Nederland (OPNL). Regional parties work together in the OPNL, and some of them negotiated with the BBB about participating in provincial coalitions. OPNL stands at virtually one seat in the Senate. The regional parties can afford to lose two votes in Zeeland, one in Noord-Brabant, and one in Drenthe, for example.

Parties like the PVV and JA21 have even more leeway. If the BBB manages to get enough votes from other parties on Tuesday, it could get another seat in the Senate.

What can work for the BBB can, of course, also work for other parties. For example, D66 can help coalition panthers VVD or ChristenUnie with an extra seat. And the CDA could prevent D66 from losing a seat as a result.