Rabobank: Supermarket prices will rise further in the coming months

There is currently no end in sight to the price increases at Dutch supermarkets, with producers continuing to increase their wholesale prices, research from Rabobank showed. Pricing negotiations during the winter months has been tense, just like last year, said the Sebastiaan Schreijen, a senior analyst focusing on the food and beverages sector for Rabobank.

Manufacturers have indicated that they have to increase their sales prices by 10 to 20 percent to cover all costs. The cause of this increase is largely due to the expensive dollar and rising personnel costs. Indirect energy costs also play a role. Packaging material such as glass and cardboard, but also semi-refined products such as flour and salt are made with a significant amount of energy. These products are purchased by food companies on a contractual basis, so the higher energy costs are still passed on to them.

"Consumers have already had to deal with price increase after price increase in the past year," said Schreijen. So far, the increase in consumer prices at grocery stores have not come close to covering the cost increases. "Not by a long shot," Schreijen wrote. Consumers should be well aware that producers intend to continue to increase prices, which will be felt in the coming months, he continued.

Rabobank expects the supermarkets' buyers to "give considerable resistance at the negotiating table" in the near future. As a result, store shelves inside supermarkets may be lacking many products as supplies are reduced, and empty shelves will remain if deliveries are stopped.

"But despite this austerity, groceries will become (even) more expensive in the first months of 2023."