Experts highly critical of plan to cut number of Schiphol flights to 440,000

Experts are very critical of the government’s plan to cut Schiphol’s annual flight movements from 500,000 to 440,000, calling the calculation to get to that number one-sided and poorly substantiated. The Ministry ignored the criticism, EenVandaag reports based on its own research.

Shortly before the summer, Minister Mark Harbers of Infrastructure and Water Management announced that Schiphol would only be allowed 440,000 flight movements annually from the end of 2023. The reduction was necessary due to noise pollution - locals sued the government for exceeding noise standards for years.

The Ministry arrived at 440,000 flight movements per year, saying that is the minimum number required to guarantee Schiphol remains well connected to the world.

According to EenVandaag, the Ministry looked at the 178 most important cities for business travelers Schiphol was connected to in 2019. Those require 296,000 flights per year. It also looked at Schiphol being connected to 385 cities, which would require 426,000 flights per year. The Ministry took an average of the two scenarios and added 2,000 flights to five special destinations - Suriname and the Caribbean Netherlands - plus 15 percent for holiday flights and another 5 percent as an uncertainty margin.

That came down to between 396,000 and 438,000 flight movements per year. The Cabinet rounded up and went for 440,000 flight movements per year. “It’s not hard science,” Harbers said at the time. “But from our analysis, which we also had external experts assess, 440,000 is the number. You need at least that many flights to at least guarantee a good connection with the world at Schiphol.”

According to EenVandaag, the Ministry indeed had three external experts - Floris de Haan from Erasmus University, SEO, and CE Delft - assess its analysis. But it never said what they thought of the calculations. They were overwhelmingly critical, according to the program.

De Haan called the calculations incomplete, with too little attention to traveler demand and too much for a desired range of destinations. The Ministry should also have weighed the positive effects of less flying – less noise pollution, CO2, and nitrogen emissions - against the value of the connections.

According to De Haan, the Ministry’s method “gives a simplified representation of reality.” “Whatever model you choose, it will always have shortcomings. At the moment, the analysis results are one-sided,” he said to EenVandaag. “We have indicated several points of which we say: you can add that to paint a more complete picture. The Ministry took note of that.”

The other experts were also critical. SEO called the chosen method “highly arbitrary,” saying the choice to go with an average from two scenarios is “not necessarily a well-founded way.” CE Delft also called the method “one-sided.” Both agencies refused to comment further to EenVandaag.