Dutch economy to grow 3.1% this year, but not all areas equally effected: Rabobank

The Dutch economy will likely grow by 3.1 percent this year as the war in Ukraine, inflation, and staff shortages temper an even stronger recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, according to Rabobank economists. All Dutch regions will see economic growth, but the regional differences are significant, the bank said on Tuesday.

Greater Amsterdam will likely see the most economic growth this year. The region, which includes Schiphol, was hit hard by the pandemic's effects on tourism, hospitality, and recreation. This year the region is continuing last year's recovery and is benefiting from a strong comeback in the hospitality- and leisure sectors, the Rabobank economists said. 

Zeeland and Haarlem's economy will also grow by more than the national average thanks to the recovery in the hospitality sector, Rabobank expects. And The Hague, Haarlem, and Zuidwest Friesland will benefit from the revived leisure sector.

On the other hand, last year's strong growth of industrial regions is unlikely to continue this year mainly due to high raw material and energy prices. Delfzijl and the surrounding area, Zuidoost-Brabant, Zeeuws-Vlaanderen, and IJmond's economies will therefore grow less than the national average, the bank expects. 

Rabobank said that the regional forecasts are surrounded by more than usual uncertainties. "The biggest of these is the impact of the war in Ukraine and the associated economic sanctions against Russia. These affect the Dutch economy through disrupted exports, high raw material and energy prices, and new problems in the supply chains." Regions in which those branches are strongly represented will likely see a negative effect on their total economy.