Third Covid wave could be shorter, less intense

The third wave of coronavirus infections and hospitalizations may be shorter and less intense than previously anticipated, sources from the Outbreak Management Team told newspaper AD. A new forecast is showing that the peak of this wave could be reached Mid-April, half a month sooner than predicted before.

In a briefing to the House of Representatives on March 24th, Jaap van Dissel, the director of national public health agency RIVM, predicted the third wave would continue to build into the beginning of May. He estimated it would lead to 1,300 patients with Covid-19 occupying beds in the country’s intensive care units, which would put Dutch hospitals under intense pressure.

An updated forecast made a few days ago, assumes a more favorable scenario. The newspaper reported that a new model shows that the third wave will reach its peak in mid-April. There will be an estimated 800 ICU beds occupied by patients with the coronavirus disease, a revised estimate based on constantly updated data.

On Sunday, there were 730 Covid-19 patients in the ICU, a level not seen since last May. At the same time, the RIVM reported 6,918 new cases of SARS-CoV-2 on Sunday. This was the first time since Tuesday that the numbers dropped below 7,000. This brought the seven-day rolling average to 7,171, two percent lower than last week.

Jaap van Dissel is expected to hold a technical briefing in the Tweede Kamer, the lower House of Parliament, again this Wednesday when the newest data will be presented.