Election Poll Maurice de Hond: VVD would lose 6 seats

If there were to be parliamentary elections now, Mark Rutte's conservative party VVD would lose six seats, predicts pollster Maurice de Hond. The party would go from the current 34 seats to 28. If there were a List Pieter Omtzigt, it would get 27 seats. The pollster polled nearly 4,000 people on Friday and Saturday.

The poll links the seat reduction to the commotion in recent days around the failed formation and around the outgoing prime minister and VVD leader Mark Rutte. Rutte narrowly survived a parliamentary debate and a motion of no-confidence on Thursday.

The debate revolved around the question of who had spoken to the then pathfinders Kasja Ollongren and Annemarie Jorritsma about the position of the critical Member of Parliament Pieter Omtzigt. Rutte eventually admitted that he had been but that he had forgotten about it at first. The opposition filed a motion of no confidence, its intended coalition partners D66 and CDA came up with a motion of censure.

In De Hond's survey, participants were also presented with what they would have done if they had sat in the House of Representatives and had to vote on the two motions. More than half (54 percent) of the Dutch would then have voted in favor of the motion of no confidence, 26 percent also in favor of the motion of censure. Even among VVD voters, 37 percent would have voted for one of the two motions, and 20 percent of the Dutch would have voted for neither of the two motions.

The participants were also asked whether the party they voted for should participate in a new cabinet if Rutte were to become prime minister. Among the voters of the current three government partners, a majority thinks that the party should not rule with Mark Rutte: D66 (68 percent), CDA (57 percent), and ChristenUnie (57 percent). Of the JA21 voters, 51 percent think so, and among the VVD voters, 77 percent think that the VVD can govern with Rutte as prime minister.

De Hond also asked people about their preference if certain components were added. If there were a List Pieter Omtzigt, it would get 27 seats. In that hypothetical situation, that would be more than the VVD, which would then end up in second place, with 26 seats.

An earlier poll by EenVandaag among 21,000 participants also showed that confidence in Rutte has fallen. EenVandaag observes a decrease to 25 percent. Last week, 54 percent still had confidence in Rutte as prime minister.

VVD voters do support their leader by a large majority; eight in ten (81 percent) still have confidence in Mark Rutte, according to the EenVandaag opinion panel. They feel that he has proven himself over the past ten years and, furthermore, think that, despite this issue, there is no one who would be a better prime minister and VVD leader, certainly not during the coronavirus crisis.

According to the panel, Mark Rutte's position as prime minister is also not in question for his voters: 88 percent find it acceptable that he is still the outgoing prime minister. Nine out of ten VVD voters (90 percent) also consider Rutte suitable to be in charge again in a new cabinet.

Mark Rutte himself wants to continue as VVD leader and remain prime minister on behalf of his party, even though his current coalition partner ChristenUnie no longer wants to join him in a new cabinet. "I am militant," Rutte told national broadcasters NOS and RTL. "That is my feeling today, and I will hold on to that." He did say that "the past few days" did not leave him "unmoved."