D66 wins in this week's poll; majority for current coalition not guaranteed

In the final sprint to Wednesday's parliamentary elections, liberal party D66 appears to be on the rise. In the latest election poll, Sigrid Kaag's party can count on 17 seats, three more than last week.

D66 has been engaged in steady growth in the polls for weeks. Two weeks ago the party was still at 13 seats and at the end of January on 11. According to the polls, the virtual profit achieved by D66 is due to party leader Kaag. The increase to 17 seats is still somewhat slowed down by Volt's good score, which, according to prediction, snatched at least one seat from D66. The European federalist party currently polls at three seats.

"For D66, 17 would already be a good result, because historically, D66 always fell sharply when they were in government. But if a party starts to rise sharply just before the elections, it could yield even more in recent days," reports pollster Maurice De Hond.

Nearly 4,500 people were questioned about their current party choice for the poll. The proportion of voters who indicate that they know for sure which party to vote for is now more than three quarters. According to De Hond, 42 percent of the nearly 2.4 million voters over the age of 70 have now voted by mail. That is approximately 1 million voters, who together will probably make up between 10 and 12 percent of the voter turnout.

Current prediction of seat allocation

According to the current estimate, the composition of the House of Representatives would look as followed: The VVD loses one seat (to 31) and the CDA wins one (to 18). The PvdA (11), GroenLinks (8), PvdD (6), ChristenUnie (6) and 50Plus (1) are relinquishing a seat. Code Orange also loses a seat and drops below the quota. The SP (10), FVD (6) and Volt (3) rise one seat. The number of estimated seats for the PVV (24), SGP (3), JA21 (3), DENK (2) and Bij1 (1) remains the same.

Coalition

The current VVD, CDA, D66, Christenunie coalition comes to 72 seats in the poll, which is insufficient for a majority. In the 2017 elections, the four together won a narrow majority of 76 seats. In the poll by EenVandaag and Ipsos, the coalition also won 76 seats last week.

According to De Hond, the PVV is now the largest in East Groningen, Limburg and Rijnmond. The CDA is the largest in many municipalities in Overijssel. But does not seem to become the largest in any municipality in Brabant or Limburg. While 30 years ago the CDA was the largest in almost all municipalities.

D66 seems to be the largest in most student cities. CodeOranje has fallen below the quota for splinter parties. The problem for this party seems to be that JA21 is taking away part of the potential of this party in the region of The Hague.