Nationalist anti-Islam party PVV won't be in next Dutch cabinet: ING Analyst

Geert Wilders Purmerend borders closed
Geert Wilders in Purmerend handing out flyers against the opening of an asylum reception center there. Oct. 6, 2015 (photo: PVV). (Geert Wilders in Purmerend handing out flyers against the opening of an asylum reception center there. Oct. 6, 2015 (photo: PVV))

Anti-Islam nationalist party PVV will not be in the next Dutch government after the elections in March of this year, according to ING economists Martin van Vliet and Dimitry Flemming. In a report titled Much ado about nothing... probably, they list several reasons why they believe Geert Wilders and his PVV will not cause political earthquakes after the elections, Business Insider Nederland reports. 

The first obstacle in the way of PVV domination is the extreme fragmentation in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Dutch parliament, according to the economists. The latest poll by Maurice de Hond shows the PVV as the largest party with 35 virtual seats. But even if the party takes all 35 those seats, the PVV will need a coalition with at least three other parties for a majority vote, according to the polls. 

This is closely linked with the second obstacle facing a nationalist revolt in the Netherlands - almost no one wants to govern with the PVV. According to the report, the VVD is the only party to keep the door open to a coalition with the PVV. Though even VVD party leader Halbe Zijlstra recently stated that based on content there is a "zero" chance of VVD and PVV cooperation. The economists find a center-right or center-left coalition with four or five parties much more likely. 

Finally the ING economists point out that a so-called Nexit referendum - something the PVV has been advocating for since the Brexit referendum - has basically no chance in the Netherlands. The current legislation on consultative referendums in the Netherlands are only about new legislation. That means that a Nexit referendum - a referendum on whether the Netherlands should exit the EU - is impossible unless the law is changed. 

According to the economists, support in the Tweede Kamer to change the referendum law is very limited. And even if the Tweede Kamer agrees, the Eerste Kamer, the Dutch Senate, also needs to vote on it. The economists expects that there won't be support in the Eerste Kamer for this until after the provincial elections in 2019. Furthermore, creating a binding referendum will require a constitutional amendment, which requires a two-thirds majority in both the Eerste and Tweede Kamer.